Air Chief Marshal Tyagi, Air Marshal Goel, Mr Gulshan Luthra and friends.

My close association with matters defence has been intimate. Both as a soldier and then as a career bureaucrat holding several assignments in the Ministry of Defence. My linkages are, therefore, an amalgam of personal inclination and professional necessity.

While studying the various conflicts which have taken place since the Second World War, one comes across a recurring theme that threat perception and security concerns were guiding forces behind evolution of new technologies which, in turn, necessitated changes in military strategy and warfare doctrines.

This themat ic compulsion has to be accepted and any compartmentalized approach is fraught with dangerous consequences.

Considering the audience that I have, let me choose a familiar example. The safety concerns surrounding vulnerability of allied aircraft during daytime bombing runs over Germany led to the development of radar, which enabled the British to carry out successful night bombing runs. The environment of Vietnam, which necessitated deployment of troops and evacuation of casualties from a difficult terrain, saw advances in helicopter development and application. The rapid developments were the consequences of the threat Perceptions of the Cold War.

Therefore, when we discuss the Indian air power situation between 2025 and 2050, we need to link it with our security concerns during the relevant period. While doing so, we should keep in view the emerging parameters of regional and global linkages, and the emerging domains of technologies, that likely to influence and impact the region.

The sheer expanse of our geography, which includes land borders with five countries and a 7,500 plus kilometers coastline, along with our Exclusive Economic Zones, makes monitoring and protecting our sovereign territory a significant challenge. It makes control of the airspace above our territory and maritimeapproaches, especially crucial.

Movement of people across borders, bringing in persons and capabilities, which may pose a threat to the country, cannot be wished away. Therefore while on one end of the spectrum advanced military technologies – both in conventional and NBC categories – continue to enter our neighborhood, the use of this very technology in an asymmetric format is another reality. Global agenda of hatred and violence mixed with a historical legacy of adversity makes an explosive cocktail that India will need to contend with. Air power cannot remain insulated from this challenge.

India, as a growing economic power is getting increasingly linked with the outside world. This includes the vast spread of our energy sources, our own assets and their inflow as also reach of our populace. We have nearly 5 million Indians working in the Gulf area alone. While these are instruments of growth, they also create vulnerabilities and challenges of a different kind. We are living in a volatile region and should be prepared to meet any contingency. Our defence preparedness and, I daresay expeditionary capability, for undertaking operations to protect our strategic interests has to evolve accordingly. This aspect becomes important as water, energy and maritime resources will increasingly become the issues of future conflicts.

Limited wars of the future will present a new and demanding set of challenges and will require that present organizations and force structures be transformed to meet them. India needs an Air Force with a “high-end” capability that ensures a confidence of victory. India also needs a strike capability that will allow India more scope to determine the pace and parameters of hostilities, impose major costs on an adversary contemplating hostile action against us, along with providing requisite support to the Indian forces deployed anywhere. The increasing option for contributing to regional coalitions will automatically get attended to.

Along with this, we also need an Air Force which can operate in a full range of lower threat, lower technology environments. This calls for a full range of capabilities with the ability to dynamically swing between them. In building up a viable air power, we must take into consideration the equipment and technologies, which will be necessary to enable us to play our intended role. Since we live in a link-based global environment, we should also take into consideration the global trends in technological development, as these will undoubtedly, find their way into the region and in our neighborhood.

On the technological level, we are witnessing two parallel streams of development – evolutionary and revolutionary. While older systems continue to be improved, new systems are being developed by exploiting possibilities and opportunities that emerging technologies allow. Therefore, while mid-21st century will witness the deployment of 5th generation of traditional fighter aircraft, there would also be an increasing use of sophisticated models of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for various tasks that many variants of fighter aircraft perform today. In fact, some aviation experts are confident that the F-35 being developed by the US would be the last manned fighter aircraft of theUSAF.

The requirement and skills of close combat and dogfights will need to be supplanted by information management and application. As the world continues to refine the surveillance and target acquisition technologies, there would be an enhanced use of Beyond Visual Range (BVR) strike capability. Current trends also indicate a shift in development and fielding of dedicated task specific aerial platforms, towards development of lighter aircraft, capable of performing multiple tasks. While this would ensure good economics, from the production and maintenance point of view, the multi-role capability of the aircraft will give the pilot operational flexibility to shift targets or go in for multiple targeting as per requirement of the situation.

Future combat operations will witness a dramatic increase in UAV involvement. Typical capabilities of these next-generation unmanned observation vehicles will include continuous 360-degree sensor converge flying from altitudes exceeding 60,000 feet, increased survivability gained from improved low observable technologies, and mission duration times exceeding 40 hours per sortie. Further development of solar-electric propulsion and fuel cells may lead to mission duration times measured in weeks rather than hours. The vehicles themselves will have on-board intelligence capable of autonomously performing tasks such as optimal in-flight routing and coordinated target prosecution.

An autonomous in-flight refueling capability that will extend their potential range substantially is a significant possibility. Technology also needs to be harmonized with other players in the airspace. In the words of Gen Henry H Arnold, the last Commanding General of the Army Air Force and one of the founding fathers of the US Air Force, The first essential of airpower is preeminence in research.” Today, countries like the US, France, UK and Russia are pursuing the transformation of air and space power through development of technologies that yield newer capabilities. Adoption of novel operational concepts leverages this capability to achieve desired military effects. An emerging transformation is about migrating military capabilities to unmanned platforms for a wide range of air applications and developing new directed energy capabilities, which produce effects on the battlefield ranging from the traditional destruction of enemy equipment to the revolutionary non-lethal, non-destructive stopping of advancing enemy troops. The broad-based area of information technology, nanotechnology, and biotechnology has a very significant military-orientation.

These are being used to tackle concerns such as intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and seek systems that were only dreams in the past century. The Airborne Laser, or ABL, programme now in development testing by the US is an example.

High-power microwaves is another directed energy technology that can produce innovative soft-kill, or non-lethal, effects. It has a huge potential in the command and control warfare, in suppressing enemy air defenses or against tactical aircraft, missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles. Airbase defence using this technology is a natural corollary.

We are also witnessing development in technology to improve knowledge integration and exchange between digital environments. The access, distribution and dissemination of information are emerging as a force multiplier and decisive factor in guiding operation at all levels. The availability of real time information is but the beginning to numerous automated aids of decision-making to enable a Commander to arrive at a solution in real time.

Leveraging this ability cannot be done in isolation. We need to work together to integrate the information acquired though sensors on the surface, in the air and space, and then build the ability to process information and disseminate the same to combat elements. A C4I² System common to the three Services would have to be put in place. I would also like to point out that information technology is a double-edged tool; its strength is also susceptible to information warfare. This is an area where technology has attained unprecedented levels and can be garnered only jointly.

What is important is the fact that the emerging military technologies, when combined with operational doctrines and organizational structures, will bring about major changes in the conduct of warfare. In essence, future military operations will inherently be Joint in nature and composition. The prime endeavour of all Armed Forces is to target the centre of gravity of the enemy. Thus, there would be a need for real timelines envisaging Services coordination and synchronized actions to match the high speed and tempo of joint operations.

Even as air power has emerged as a major area of specialization, extending now into aerospace power, it carries within its fold many specializations in terms of roles, missions and technologies. This tends to detract attention and effort from greater coordination and joint operations. Unfortunately, a great deal of debate and thinking in trying to resolve such problems tends to focus on ownership of systems and capabilities rather than on a holistic understanding of the limits and strengths of different components. Warfare has become too complex to be managed by a linear approach.

Joint planning with flexible autonomy in handling tactical situations would have greater chances of success than rigidity and linear approaches.

The fundamental requirement for an effective triad is the efficient integration of the strategic forces to ensure national security requirements. Like conventional weaponry, unity and economy of effort are the cardinal principles on which integrated operational planning can take place. This requires a clear understanding of common strategic objectives, clarity of joint operational requirements, unambiguous identification, prioritization and assignment of targets, and a meticulous synchronization of mission plans. Joints Strategic Forces Commanders would need to clearly determine the number, type, and yield of weapons, and the kind of platforms to be used. Further, there will be necessary requirements of a clear understanding of the geographical area of employment, timing and duration of attack, and damageconstraints.

The congruence of surface and air forces needs for aerial surveillance, defence suppression, target information and fire coordination in the battle area seeks inter-operable systems. This does not deny systems to cater for specific requirement of each service but demands that equipment, especially in communications, weapon systems and electronics remaincompatible and be available for use by the other services.

A sound targeting philosophy is central to the success of an ymilitary campaign. We need to work out a policy framework for integrating the targeting philosophy of the three services to enhance the synergy of operational employment of individual service assets. Once formulated, targets would be engaged by the most appropriate weapon/weapon systems, irrespective of the service to which it belongs. This has become even more relevant with the acquisition of SSMs by the Army. Targeting would require technologies of reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition, which could be enmeshed towards providing greater transparency of the battlefield.

Jointness has to be seen beyond the restricted sense of the three services. It signifies an integrated National view. The capability to design and develop capabilities in aerospace cannot be seen only through the military prism. We should state our national objectives and lay down a systematic plan for growth of our civil and military aviation sectors. Besides the requirements of the civil aviation sector and the IAF, one must also factor in the requirements of central and state Para-military forces. Unplanned and uncoordinated systems of procurement by individual agencies will result in duplication of efforts and unnecessary cost overruns.

Air power implies maximum exploitation of both military and commercial domains. It is in this context that we need to think whether we are doing enough. The engine that fuels any kind of growth, is the economic advantage that an idea or pursuit promises. Our farsighted leaders had therefore encouraged smaller and dispersed airports. This would have been a boon to encourage air travel, helped growth of air commerce and indigenous air industry. Unfortunately we chose bigger aircraft and, in effect, worked against this concept. Today we have hub to hub connectivity without utilizing the spokes, and spoke to spoke movement. There are 124 airports in India out of which twelve are international airports and about 80 domestic airports. However, the fact remains that several of these domestic airports, especially those not situated in state capitals and tourist destinations, remain severely underutilized. There are several airports where no flight operates and some, like the industrial hub of Kanpur, is serviced by a single flight per day only.

The growing need for speedier connectivity in the country has created a need for geographically well-dispersed airports from which small, medium and heavy lift aircraft can operate. Why the planning and resources of both civil and military sector can’t be pooled to ensure interoperability. These airports should be planned in a way that while they serve the commuter and cargo handling requirements during peacetime, they can switch over to act as emergency landing strips, dispersal areas for our IAF aircraft during times of conflict. Similarly, training can be jointly imparted to civil and military Air Traffic Controllers. This will enhance procedural familiarization, which can come in handy while catering to emergencies and shortages in each sector.

CONCLUSION

Aerospace and associated technologies is a subject that has multiple dimensions. Each of these seeks a debate that involves multitude disciplines and diverse stake holders. At the end of it, however, national interests and national capabilities matter. We find ourselves in a point of time where India has managed an economic window that will define our future. The challenges of the morrow can become opportunities only if we have developed the capability to leverage the transformation from a handicap to strength. This seminar has broached various domains of the possible. The participation highlights the desire to face this challenge. What I have highlighted, is, to be doing it together and with a common understanding. Finally, ‘In the development of Air power one has to look ahead and not what has gone by.’ s