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The SLOCs in the IOR are vital for the world’s
economy, as two thirds of the world trade and
60% of the world’s oil and gas transits the region,
and large energy resources emanate from the Middle
East. US Rear Admiral Alfred Mahan, the great
19th century strategic thinker, had predicted
that the future of the world in the 21st century
would be decided in the waters of the Indian Ocean.
Being the major nation in the IOR with a peninsular
promontory that juts into the Indian Ocean, India
holds many geographic advantages, and responsibilities,
of proximity to the waters. And as a modern, liberal
democracy, India is easily accepted by the littoral
and smaller island states as well as Australia,
Japan and USA as a responsible player in the IOR.
 In
fact, due to the growing cooperation with them,
this emerging informal grouping of four, that
is, India, USA, Japan and Australia, has also
been referred to as the QUAD. The Harvard educated
Vice Admiral Hideaki Kaneda from Japan’s Okazaki
Institute speaking at the United Service Institution
USI) Conference here on ‘Rising China’ in November
2009, referred o the QUAD countries as likeminded
nations, with strong navies. He also went on to
suggest the need to demarcate the international
commonly used sea lanes in IOR with jurisdiction
by Japan, India, Australia and United States (JIAUS)
and to extend it to the South China Seas (JAUS).
This exclusion of China was not aken well by
the Chinese delegate Ms Han Hua, a US educated
nuclear trategist from Beijing University. She
explained China’s dependence on he SLOCs, especially
the strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Straits,
and called this China’s area of national interest.
The closure of the Hormuz or Malacca for more
than a few days will ee a rise in oil and insurance
prices, and geo-political upheavals. China’s nterests
on this score would need to be addressed, she
said.
In recent years China has extended ts interests
and investments into Africa and Iran for resources,
and is practising cheque book diplomacy, like
Japan did in the past, especially for port development
in the IOR, to create what is referred to as China’s
‘ String of Pearls’ strategy. China also supplies
arms to African states, Pakistan and IOR countries
at nominal prices, hoping to turn them in to client
states, and wean them away from competing interests
of India and the West.
 More
recently, China was the major supplier of arms
and support to Sri Lanka in the six-month war,
that the Sri Lankan military fought with verve
and latest technology in 2009, to decimate the
LTTE.
But more worrying is the rise of Chinese nat
ional i sm and assertiveness, which Fareed Zakaria
of the Newsweek says is, “like Germany in the
late 19th century growing rapidly but uncertainly
in to a global system in which it feels it deserves
more attention and honor.”
This could lead to disagreements in the IOR
with the Indian Navy’s view, articulated by the
former Chief of Naval Staff and presently India’s
High Commissioner in New Zealand Admiral Sureesh
Mehta.
He has stated that the Indian Navy had taken
on the mantle to look after the security of the
IOR along with the navies of the littoral states.
“We see the Indian Navy as a significant stabilizing
force in the Indian Ocean region, which safeguards
traffic bound not only for our own ports, but
also the flow of hydrocarbons and strategically
important cargo to and from the rest of the world
across the strategic waterways close to our shores.”
The Chinese refer to India’s influence and geographic
advantage of the Andaman Islands in the IOR, and
gathering of the 28 IOR Naval Chiefs in the bi-annual
Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) initiated
in February 2008 by Admiral Mehta, as India’s
‘Iron Curtain’.
China is not an invitee or an observer to the
IONS, but has indicated that its national interests
extend to the SLOCs in the IOR.
The next IONS will be held in Abu Dhabi, UAE
from 12th May, under the Chairmanship of the UAE
Naval Commander Rear Admiral Ahmed AL Sabab AL
Tonaigi. Indian Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral
Nirmal Verma will then pass on the IONS baton
to him.
The UAE Admiral is regarded as a friend in India,
which also holds that the Gulf states themselves
have a very important role in ensuring security
of the Gulf waters as well as the Arabian Sea
and Gulf of Aden.
Many nations have applied to be invited to IONS
as observers, while China expects to be invited,
and has objected to joint exercises by the QUAD
countries. IONS has commenced essay competitions
on maritime subjects like EEZ cooperation, to
elicit views.
RISE OF THE CHINESE PLA
NAVY
An extract of China’s 2008 Defence White Paper
quoted above, and the growth of the PLA Navy in
recent years, is in keeping with China’s increasing
emphasis on maritime power.
Interestingly Deng Xioaping who scripted the
four-pronged strategy of development for China
which included military modernization, had stated:
“Bide your time and hide your capabilities, and,
be not a leader till you are one.”
Deng went on to liberalize China’s economy in
1979 and stated he did not mind the colour of
the cat as long as it caught mice, implying China
needed to achieve results at any cost. His strategy
enabled China to steadily bide its time for three
decades, drum up its economy and modernize its
armed forces with unprecedented speed, not witnessed
in recent history.
The prowess of the Chinese to conduct a grand
2008 Olympics and the show of armaments at the
1st October, 2009 parade was their coming of age
party.
In a calibrated manner, President Hu Jintao,
now at the helm, and a former Governor of Tibet
(which needs noting as China has claims on Tawang
and Arunachal as part of Tibet), has altered course
of the strategic posture of China. Hu wants China
to become a leader nation in the region, and to
take a proactive leadership role in world affairs
and extend the range of China’s vital interests.
THE CHINESE NAVAL EXPANSION
China has a very large and robust shipbuilding
industry and its powerful Central Military Commission
(CMC), which monitors and tasks the armed forces,
has ensured the development of the third generation
warships as a key area for naval modernization.
The new developments include the commissioning
of new guided missile destroyers called Type-051C,
Type- 052C, and upgrade of the 9,000 ton Sovremenny
destroyers supplied by Russia with Sunburn SSMs,
and the Type-054A frigates which are equipped
with weapon systems which resemble, at least in
looks, the US Navy’s Aegis Combat System.
The warships have Harbin Eurocopter anti-submarine
and utility helicopters, C-802 type anti-ship
Ying Ji-Eagle Strike with sea skimming and radar
homing capability, Haihongqi HHQ-9 and Hongi HQ-16
anti-air missile systems with a short reaction
time and good anti-jamming capabilities, torpedoes,
and comprehensive electronic warfare systems.
Some of these latest ships with C4ISR capabilities
and very impressive stealth features, have been
deployed off the Gulf of Aden.
Concurrently, the enhancement of the PLA(N) fleet
of 63 to around 78 conventional warships is planned
for 2020, with five/six units of SSBNs (Jin),
six of SSNs (Shang), one Xia with JL-1/2 missiles,
and over 50 conventional submarines of the Kilo
Type to dominate the waters off Taiwan, should
the US Navy carrier task forces come to the aid
of Taiwan.
The submarines and its naval fleet of SU-27 fighters,
China claims, is to merely provide deterrence
against USA. Five new landing ship docks (LPDs)
and a slew of support fleet tankers and support
ships for control of spacecraft with China’s credible
nuclear strike capability, do indeed provide deterrence.
Cyber warfare is an important plank in the Chinese
military repertoire. Ordinary websites as well
as those of government agencies around the world
have been hacked by the Chinese, apparently as
part of an exercise to cripple world communications
if required ever by Beijing.
Former Soviet Kuznetsov class aircraft carrier
Variag, acquired by China and now named Shi Lang
after the Chinese General who took possession
of Taiwan in 1681, has been converted into a flying
training carrier at Dalian and as per reports
the keel of a larger carrier is to be laid.
The PLA Navy has currently built an Order of
Battle (ORBAT) of three fleets, Northern, Central
and Southern, of 54 major surface combatants,
compared to Indian Navy’s 16. It has 18 guided
missile destroyers (DGGs) of Type-051 Luda class
with air defence capabilities, diverse submarines,
and 49 FFGs. As per Dr Huang Jing of the Lee Kuan
School of Public Policy, a renowned expert on
China, the new PLA platforms are larger and are
being constantly improved.
Among the 25 newly added major combatants, the
noteworthy ones include:
- Two Luzhou Type-051C DDGs (115 Shenyang and
116 Shijiazhuang)
- Two Luyang-II Type-052C DDGs (170 Lanzhou
and 171 Haikou)
- Four upgraded Sovremennyclass DDGs (Project
956: 136 Hangzhou and 137 Fuzhou; and Project
936/EM: 138 Taizhou and 139 Ningbo)
- Two Luyang Type-052B DDGs (168 Guangzhou and
169 Wuhan)
China’s Defence Paper 2008, issued in early
2009 states the duty of the Chinese Armed Forces
is “the protection of national sovereignty, security,
territorial integrity, safeguarding of the interests
of national development, and the interests of
the Chinese people above all else.” On the role
of the Navy specifically, it goes on to state,
the duty is to “gradually develop its capabilities
of conducting cooperation in distant waters.”
Surely this includes the IOR in the not so distant
a future.
PLA NAVY ENTERS THE INDIA
OCEAN
In a bold blue water expeditionary role, the
Chinese Navy stationed a Naval Task Force of three
ships continuously off the Gulf of Aden from 6th
January 2009 beginning with 5,850-tonne Luhai
class Wuhan (No 169) and the 6,100-tonne Luyang
class Haikou (No 171) and its largest 23,000 tonne
fleet replenishment ship Weishanhu (No 887) from
Sanya’s Walong Naval base on Hainan island with
specially trained commandoes (PLA Marines).
Currently the FFG 525 Ma’anshan, FFG 526 Wenzou
and supply ship Qiandaohu from the Zhoushan naval
base in Zhejiang Province under Rear Admiral Wang
Zhiguo, are operating in the PLA(N)’s fourth deployment
away from its shores.
Recently, PLA Navy has requested to be the co-chair
of the monthly Shared Awareness and DEconfliction
(SHADE) meeting held in Bahrain presently co-chaired
by the US Commander Maritime Forces (CMF) and
European Union (EU). The meetings, established
in December 2008, have become an important venue
where 15 different navies, including the Indian,
are invited along with regional nations affected
by piracy, and the merchant community.
The SHADE meeting discusses and formulates the
‘best practices’ to deal with the challenges of
piracy, which does not seem to be abating. China,
already an attendee of the meetings, has become
active in the group. The Chinese delegate at the
last meeting also suggested that areas of patrol
in the IOR should be designated, and designated
nation-wise, following the Obama-Hu Jintao Beijing
meeting in November.
India’s deployment of INS Tabar and LST Shardul
and CGS Varuna end-October to Seychelles and Mauritius
and the announcement that it was building a radar
chain for the defence of the Maldives and Seychelles,
and then INS Savitri being stationed in the Seychelles
and Maldives area for anti-piracy in early December,
has been noted by the Chinese.
Rear Admiral Scott E Sanders, Commander CTF-
151 on flagship USS Chosin, which is engaged 24
x 7 in anti piracy patrols off the waters off
Somalia, recently visited Rear Admiral Wang Zhiguo,
the Commander of the Chinese Task Force 529, aboard
Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Ship Zhou
Shan. The occurrence of such a visit in the middle
of the Gulf of Aden is a clear sign that western
coordination with PLA Navy is increasing.
The Chinese Navy has also installed its own
web-based internet service with dedicated satellites
to communicate worldwide.
In contrast, the Indian Navy still relies on
INMARSAT and its low bit rate HF/VHF Link II system,
awaiting a Navy dedicated satellite which ISRO
proposes to launch in 2010. The US Navy from Fifth
Fleet HQ in Bahrain, UK via INMARSAT, NATO from
HQ Northwood and EU have set up web sites for
piracy patrol data and for coordination.
On 18th October, China’s DDG ‘Shijiazhuang’ and
the replenishment ship ‘Hongze Lake’ under the
command of Rear Admiral Wang Fushan, Deputy Commander
of the Chinese North Sea Fleet, sailed for Chile,
Peru, Ecuador and French Polynesia to demonstrate
goodwill and naval diplomacy employed by most
navies.
INDIAN NAVY’S STRATEGY
AND DOCTRINE
The Indian Navy has obviously taken the rise
of the Chinese Navy in account and issued a Maritime
Military Strategy document which clearly lists
the tasks of the Indian Navy in the 21st Century
and in the IOR.
The Indian Maritime Doctrine (BR 8) re-issued
in 2009 by the Navy, specifies the primary maritime
areas of interest besides India’s EEZ. The list
includes the out of area Straits of Malacca and
Singapore, the Sunda, Lombok, Hormuz, Bab el Mandab
Straits, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Mozambique
Channel. These are also choke points where China
has deep interests to keep the sea lanes of communications
(SLOCs) open for its vital trade at all times.
China’s defence paper also states the PLAN will
continue to “upgrade its weaponry and equipment
system, with efforts being made to build new types
of submarines, destroyers, frigates and aircraft,
forming a preliminary weaponry and equipment system
with second-generation equipment as the core and
the third generation as the backbone.”
The overall aim of China is couched and linked
with the words ‘a peaceful rise for a harmonious
world’, something that the great Chinese philosopher
Confucius advocated and is a belief of the common
Chinese people.
CONCLUSION
China today is a world economic power with the
third largest 4.1 trillion dollar economy, after
USA’s $14 and Japan’s $9 trillion.
It holds huge foreign exchange reserves abroad.
It is now displaying assertiveness and ambitious
desires to match the sole super power, USA. Therefore,
Chinese analysts explain the statements in the
defence paper to include Chinese interests the
world over.
All through history, ‘great power’ status of
nations has been associated with possession of
strong maritime power and ‘great power’ status
of nations has been associated with possession
of strong blue water navies, that can operate
in distant waters.
In the 19th century, the ‘Sun Never Set On The
British Empire’, and in the 20th century and presently,
USA and its Navy has worldwide presence. The ancient
Greeks coined the term “thallasocracy” meaning
“rule of the sea”, to describe a state with maritime
and naval supremacy of the state.
Also, if history is to go by, the rise of any
new power in history has not been peaceful. So
how China’s equations emerge, particularly with
the US, and India in the Indian Ocean Region,
is to be seen.
The current rise of China would be one of the
most cataclysmic events that will shape events
in the 21st century.
India, as China’s neighbour, and dubbed the other
rising power in the region, will have to take
note and accommodate and cope with the rise of
China with its own rise.
More than once, Indian naval chiefs have stated
that Indian Navy would have to achieve the ability
to safeguard India’s interests abroad, especially
as India has invested in oil exploration and extraction
in far off places like Sakhalin in Russia, Viet
Nam and Africa.
The Indian diaspora is also settled in distant
lands. Just before demitting office, Admiral Sureesh
Mehta the Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee and
Chief of Naval Staff speaking at the National
Maritime Foundation on National Security stated
India could no longer think of competing with
China in economy, infrastructure and defence spending
or match China force for force, but could maintain
a qualitative maritime advantage, and there is
no option but to cooperate with China for peace
and stability in the region.
There is however a baggage of the past for India
and an unresolved border dispute that simmers
between India and China which could cloud cooperation.
Indeed, as the Chinese Navy is moving into uncharted
waters, how Beijing and New Delhi handle the inevitable
conflicting interests will have far-reaching impact
on not only China’s continuous “peaceful development
and harmonious rise” but also peace and stability
of the world, especially in the South-Asia- Pacific
region.
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