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Has Gilani set in motion events that will lead
up to another military coup in Pakistan? Kayani
has carefully scripted the façade that
he supports democracy, but only time and the internal
security situation will reveal his real intentions.
Incidentally, Gilani did not consult PML (Nawaz),
the main opposition party before announcing the
extension. Though Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman
of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has denied it,
American pressure is reported to have contributed
towards the decision. The US and NATO-ISAF forces
in Afghanistan have come to believe that though
Gen Kayani is not a perfect partner in the war
on terror, any one else would be far worse. Clearly,
civilian rule over two years has failed to usher
in genuine democracy in Pakistan and the army
Chief continues to remain the ultimate arbiter
of that nation’s destiny.
Many Islamic scholars have commented that a parliamentary
form of democracy is not suitable for Islamic
countries as vote bank politics is inherently
divisive. However, the military junta has also
failed to provide satisfactory governance. In
his long rule, General Musharraf had proved himself
to be bereft of genuine ideas on the resolution
of Pakistan’s political, economic, social
and religion-related problems, but he batted well
for Pakistan in handling major foreign policy
issues. When the US and its NATO allies launched
an invasion of Afghanistan after the attacks on
September 11, 2001, Musharraf succeeded in pitch
forking his country once again to the status of
a frontline state. The Pakistan army gleefully
accepted all the goodies that the Americans offered
without reciprocating in a manner that the Americans
had wanted them to; i.e. to fight the Taliban-al
Qaeda terrorists on Pakistan soil and to stop
aiding and abetting their Taliban protégés
in Afghanistan.
Under Musharraf, the Pakistan army mastered the
fine art of running with the Taliban hare while
pretending to hunt them down with the US hounds.
President Obama’s hard-headed Af-Pak strategy
gradually came to haunt the Pakistan army and
it knew that denouement was at hand. It reluctantly
launched counter-insurgency operations against
the TTP terrorists to stop their march to Islamabad.
Now that the Taliban has been defeated in Swat,
Buner and South Waziristan and Baitullah Mehsud
and his successor Hakimullah Mehsud have been
killed in US drone strike in FATA, the Pakistan
army is no longer under too much pressure, except
to act against the terrorists in North Waziristan.
Hence, it has once again turned its attention
towards Kashmir. Infiltration levels in the summer
months of 2009 and 2010 have been much higher
than in previous years and a further increase
in the number of terrorist incidents in J&K
can be safely predicted.
Unless the presence of security forces is maintained
and the people in the rural areas are simultaneously
empowered to organise themselves to ensure their
own security, J&K may be in for a few more
‘hot’ summers of militancy. Recent incidents
in Kashmir Valley have highlighted that calls
for the withdrawal of the army are premature.
Notably, as a Brigadier on the panel of Royal
United Services Institute (RUSI) in London in
1990s, Musharraf had done a thesis saying that
Pakistan must get hold of Kashmir because of the
rivers flowing from there. It was during his time
that the ISI and Pakistan’s propaganda personnel
started the water war against India in the media,
and also solicited cooperation of the religious
zealots and terrorists.
Pakistan wants to sharpen its proxy war against
India, both by fire bombs and water wars.
Naturally, any new moves towards a permanent solution
of the Kashmir issue will inevitably remain on
the back burner for a long time to come. However,
the Pakistani Generals may not be averse to discussing
additional confidence building measures in the
military field and it would be in India’s
interest to agree to do so.
In case the spectre of a Taliban backlash gradually
recedes in Pakistan, the Pakistan army can be
expected to persist with its policy of running
with the hares and hunting with the hounds in
Afghanistan. India must continue its efforts to
build an international consensus for an amicable
resolution of that war-torn country’s nightmarish
problems in the interest of regional stability.
India must also seriously consider contributing
militarily to defeating the Taliban and al Qaeda
in Afghanistan.
The clearest lesson to emerge from the civil-military
imbroglio in Pakistan is that, as long as the
Pakistani armed forces remain far more powerful
than the country’s legitimate security considerations
warrant, repeated military coups will continue
to hang over Pakistan’s fledgling democracy
like the proverbial sword of Damocles. The well-wishers
of Pakistan in the West, who have consistently
and rather naively, been supporting the Pakistan
army, ostensibly in order to strengthen democracy
in Pakistan, including premier think-tanks like
the Washington-based Council for Foreign Relations
and the Brookings Institution, need to re-assess
the warped calculus of their analyses.
General Musharraf’s military regime had declared
that, “Pakistan would continue to support
with moral, political and diplomatic backing militants
seeking independence of Kashmir from India.”
Despite his peace overtures towards India, Nawaz
Sharif had also promised “many more Kargils.”
Indian policy planners clearly understand that
Pakistan’s military President had merely
reiterated Pakistan’s proxy war policy to
annex Kashmir by any means and to continue Pakistan’s
strategy to bleed India through a thousand cuts.
Perhaps the Mumbai terror attacks that are known
to have been perpetuated by the LeT and directed
throughout by the ISI were part of this strategy
of aggressive engagement.
The real problem between India and Pakistan
is the Pakistan army and its abnormal influence
in Pakistan’s affairs, and not the Kashmir
issue or any other issue. Till the Pakistan army
is tamed and genuine democracy takes root in Pakistan,
India-Pakistan problems will remain irreconcilable.
While the Pakistan army will for some more time
remain preoccupied with fighting the emerging
scourge of fundamentalist terrorism within Pakistan
and from across its western borders, India can
ill-afford to let its guard slacken for, sooner
rather than later, new attempts will invariably
be made by the Pakistani Generals to again enlarge
the scope of the proxy war in Kashmir and other
parts of India. In keeping with its tradition
of doing things on a grand scale without due thought
being given to the consequences, the Pakistan
army, aided by the ISI, may attempt to get its
mercenary marauders to ‘seize’ a small
town in Kashmir and proclaim that it has been
liberated by the mujahideen.
Such attempts need to be guarded against through
effective intelligence networks and vigorous operations
by the security forces.
Pakistan is now recognised as the world’s
mother nation in spreading the cult of radical
fundamentalism through state-sponsored terrorism.
Diplomats from the US, Nato countries, and even
from South east Asia privately admit this fact.
It could not have achieved this dubious distinction
but for the machinations of its unjustifiably
large army. Concerted international efforts must
be made in the long-term interest of Pakistani
democracy and regional stability to ensure that
the Pakistan army is not allowed to rule unhindered
from behind the scenes and further build itself
into an even more frightening force, whish threatens
not opnly the stability of the region but also
of the Pakistan polity itself.
In this respect, the conventional military aid
being given to the Pakistan army by the US and
its allies is a retrograde step.
With an elected civilian government in power,
Pakistan now has an opportunity to redeem itself.
It remains to be seen whether the Asif Zardari
led coalition will take effective measures to
set Pakistan firmly on a democratic course or
if it will fritter away its mandate in petty political
machinations.
So far, the record of the civilian government
has been uninspiring. Whispers of a nexus between
Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and the army
top brass have now turned out to be true. The
army may not allow President Asif Zardari to continue
in power for very long.
India must leverage its influence with Western
democracies to prevail on them to refrain from
conducting business as usual with the Pakistan
military and from encouraging it in any manner,
despite the so-called global war on terrorism.
Under the prevailing circumstances, with political
and internal security instability forming an explosive
cocktail in Pakistan, India must carefully think
through its moves towards resuming the stalled
rapprochement process.
While it is necessary to continue the ongoing
dialogue with Pakistan, it would be counter-productive
to pin hopes on early resolution of the troubling
issues that have plagued the relationship between
New Delhi and Islamabad for over 60 years.
The author is Director,
Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.
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