By Nilova Roy Chaudhury
New Delhi. There will be a concrete action to shore up maritime security when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Japan for his annual summit meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on November 11 and 12. The long-awaited civil nuclear deal between Japan and India is, however, unlikely to be signed.
Kenji Hiramatsu, Japan’s Ambassador to India, said differences between the two countries had been narrowed down considerably, but technical details of the deal were still being negotiated. Once finalised, the Diet or Japanese Parliament would have to approve the deal, before it could be signed and come into effect. Despite Mr Abe’s support for the deal, there are many in the Diet who oppose the deal on principles of non-proliferation.
Sources in Tokyo told India Strategic that one of the sticking points was a nullification clause by which Japan would pull out of the deal if India ever conducted a nuclear test. Given the limited time available before Prime Minister Modi’s visit, it is looking difficult this time, a source told India Strategic.
The Japanese envoy said the two Prime Ministers had already agreed on the basic principles of the agreement during their meeting last year. Mr Hiramatsu was speaking at an interaction with the All India Association of Foreign Affairs Correspondents. The agreement would allow Japan to export its atomic power plant technologies to India. Since several Japanese companies own companies US-based companies like Westinghouse and GE, the failure to arrive at an agreement is preventing companies in the United States from setting up nuclear power plants in India.
Tokyo is seeking additional cast-iron guarantees from India that no proliferation of nuclear technologies and fuel would result from the deal going through. New Delhi is not willing to change the formulation beyond the unilateral voluntary moratorium it has specified during the India US civil nuclear agreement of 2008.
Japan is the only country to have ever suffered a nuclear attack, with deadly consequences which are being felt even today, as a result of which the issue is extremely sensitive in that country.
Additionally, India has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), making Japanese lawmakers wary.
The Ministry of External Affairs announced October 28 that the Prime Minister would visit Tokyo on November 11 and 12, two weeks before the actual visit, an unusual occurrence. MEA spokesman Vikas Swarup declined to answer a question about the nuclear deal when asked on October 27, saying the visit had not been announced.
Prime Minister Modi will pay an official visit to Japan on November 11-12. During the visit, Prime Minister Modi will have an audience with His Majesty the Emperor of Japan and hold the Annual Summit meeting with Prime Minister Abe.This will be the third Annual Summit meeting between PM Modi and PM Abe.
During PM Modi visit in August-September 2014 to Japan, the first bilateral visit outside India’s immediate neighbourhood that PM Modi undertook, the relationship was upgraded to a Special Strategic and Global Partnership.
At the last Summit Meeting in New Delhi in December 2015, PM Modi and PM Abe had outlined a Vision of Working Together for Peace and Prosperity in the Indo-Pacific Region and the World, the MEA statement said.
Mr Hiramatsu said Japan was looking at some ”concrete” action with India in the realm of maritime security, while he expressed concern over recent developments in the South China Sea (SCS). China, which lost an international arbitration case over its claims over the SCS, is locked in a series of territorial disputes with Japan and other littoral states including the Philippines and Vietnam and has even taken some aggressive, even hostile measures to bolster its claims.
While he did not specify what shape the concrete action would take, it would involve enhanced Pacific-side joint exercises and manoeuvres to ensure navigability of the trade routes.
India and Japan have an established mechanism to discuss maritime issues as they both seek that the status quo in the maritime domain should not be changed militarily and every nation should follow the international laws of the sea, the Japanese Ambassador said.
”We are trying to understand the situation. We do not have specific plans at the moment, but eventually we may identify some concrete action,” Mr Hiramatsu said when asked how the maritime mechanism was working.
Japan also wants India to be part of its Indo-Pacific initiative, which Prime Minister Abe articulated at the sixth Tokyo International conference on African Development (TICAD) at Nairobi in August, the first outside Japan since the launch of the initiative in 1993.
”Japan bears the responsibility of fostering the confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans and of Asia and Africa into a place that values freedom, the rule of law, and the market economy, free from force or coercion, and making it prosperous,” Mr Abe said at the sixth TICAD in August, spelling out his new diplomatic strategy for the Indo-Pacific Ocean region, to counter Beijing’s aggressive stance in the region.
The Japanese Ambassador said Prime Minister Abe briefed Prime Minister Modi about the Indo-Pacific initiative and sought his views on how to give the initiative shape when they recently met at Laos.
The initiative concerns ways to connect Japan, India and Africa in the maritime space, and how to ensure continuous connectivity and freedom of navigation along trade routes.
”We are concerned over the developments in South China Sea, and the unilateral building activities in islands of the (South China) Sea is not acceptable to us,” Mr Hiramatsu said.
The Indo-Japanese joint statement in December last year, issued after Mr Abe’s visit to India, had mentioned the South China Sea for the first time.
”In view of the critical importance of the sea lanes of communications in the South China Sea for regional energy security and trade and commerce which underpins continued peace and proprietary of the Indo-Pacific, the two Prime Ministers called upon all states to avoid unilateral actions that could lead to tension in the region,” the 2015 statement said.
Closer defence and security ties, including joint maritime exercises, are also likely to be on the agenda. China is expanding its deep-water naval presence, and has staked claims to disputed areas of the East and South China Sea and Indian Ocean region, parts of which Japan also claims.
India has been keen to acquire 12 US-2i ShinMaywa amphibious search-and-rescue (SAR) aircraft from Japan but, despite five years of negotiations, some details need to be worked out before the billion dollar plus deal can be finalised. Beijing is sure to be closely watching the outcome of the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Tokyo. It has already objected to reported Japanese offers to lower the sale price for India, calling it disgraceful.
Both India and Japan have outstanding territorial disputes with China; India along the Line of Actual Control or land boundary with China, while
Tokyo has a dispute with Beijing over islands in the East China Sea.
Mr Modi visited Japan in August 2014 for his first bilateral visit outside South Asia within months of coming to power. During Mr Abe’s visit to India last December, both leaders agreed on a slew of deals, including India’s first bullet train, defence and civil nuclear cooperation.
Ambassador Hiramatsu also said Tokyo was keen to collaborate with New Delhi on the Chabahar project, which would provide India connectivity to Central Asia via Afghanistan. India, Iran and Afghanistan have already signed an agreement to develop the port town and routes of connectivity.
The strategically located Chabahar project in Iran could serve as a strategic option for India as a counterweight to China presence at Gwadar in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
”Chabahar has great strategic importance as it would connect south Asian countries to Central Asia and Turkey through Afghanistan. Japan can certainly help the countries developing the project,” the envoy said.
Every aspect of the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Japan, a natural ally will be closely monitored in Beijing.
