India Passenger Traffic Transitions to Growth

• India’s domestic passenger traffic recovers to 98% of pre-pandemic levels, while international networks expands
• Growth for the domestic market is expected to double by the end of this decade
• Asia Pacific freighter fleet to grow to 3,610 deliveries by 2041

Bengaluru. Boeing on February 14 unveiled its 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for India, forecasting long-term passenger growth rate of nearly 7% annually through 2041.

Largely driven by the strength of the domestic market, which has recovered to 98% of pre-pandemic levels, India’s traffic has transitioned from recovery to growth. As a result, Indian airlines will add 7% more supply in the first half of 2023, compared to 2019. Due to the rapid growth of its domestic traffic, Boeing forecasts that 90% of new airplane deliveries to India will be for single-aisle airplanes like the 737 MAX over the next 20 years. India will require approximately 2,210 new airplanes over the next two decades of which 1,983 units will be for single-aisle jets, while 227 units or 10% of new airplane deliveries will be for widebody airplanes.

“The Indian market is recovery rapidly and its domestic capacity has exceeded 2019 levels, with domestic traffic expected to double by the end of this decade,” said Dave Schulte, Boeing Commercial Marketing Managing Director for Asia Pacific. “Indian carriers will outpace global growth at nearly 7% and more than 80% of new airplane deliveries to this market will be for growth, while 20% of new airplanes will be for replacement of aging jets. This trend exemplifies India’s commitment to modernizing its fleet with more sustainable and fuel-efficient next-generation airplanes.”

In addition, the India cargo market will also continue to expand over the next two decades to meet demand. The cargo fleet will grow from about 15 airplanes today to about 80 airplanes by 2041. These will predominantly be the converted narrow-body sized aircraft to support domestic and regional growth, as well as a number of production and conversion widebody freighters to support global operations.

The 2022 India and South Asia CMO includes these projections through 2041:

• Demand for 1,983 single-aisle and 227 widebody airplanes to support robust domestic growth as well as long-haul traffic demand.
• Demand for commercial services to support fleet replacement valued at $135 billion.

Commercial airplanes deliveries to South Asia (2022-2041)

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