India becomes world’s fourth-largest economy, set to overtake Germany soon: NITI Aayog chief
New Delhi, May 26. India has officially surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, and is on track to overtake Germany to claim the third spot within the next two to three years, according to NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam.
“We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. India is now a $4 trillion economy, and this is based on IMF data – not our own,” Subrahmanyam said at a press briefing on Sunday after the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting. “Only the United States, China, and Germany are ahead of us. If we stay the course with our current economic trajectory, it’s just a matter of time – about two to three years – before we become the third-largest economy.”
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook, released earlier this month, confirmed India’s rapid ascent. It projects India’s nominal GDP to reach $4.187 trillion in 2025, slightly ahead of Japan’s estimated $4.186 trillion.
India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is the only one expected to maintain a growth rate above 6 percent over the next two years. According to IMF forecasts, India’s GDP is expected to soar to $5.58 trillion by 2028 – surpassing Germany and securing the third position globally.
In contrast, Germany’s economic outlook remains subdued. The IMF predicts no growth for Germany in 2025, with only a 0.9 percent uptick in 2026. By 2028, Germany’s GDP is projected to reach $5.25 trillion. The country is among the European economies most impacted by ongoing global trade tensions.
Japan, too, faces economic headwinds, with growth expected to stagnate at just 0.6 percent in both 2025 and 2026.
Meanwhile, the US and China will continue to occupy the top two positions. The US economy is projected to reach $30.5 trillion in 2025, followed by China at $19.2 trillion. However, both are expected to witness slower growth. The US growth rate is forecast to dip to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026, while China faces its own structural and geopolitical challenges.
Across Europe, the IMF expects sluggish growth, with the Euro Area projected to expand by just 0.8 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026. France’s growth will likely hover around 0.6 percent and 1 percent over those years, respectively. Spain is set to lead European growth with a 2.5 percent rate in 2025, although that will ease to 1.8 percent in 2026. The UK is expected to grow by 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent in the same period.
India’s rapid economic rise is not just a statistical milestone – it marks a significant shift in global economic dynamics, signalling the country’s growing influence on the world stage.
