UAE warns of regional instability as Iran strait crisis clouds US-Israel talks

Abu Dhabi, May 23. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has expressed cautious optimism over the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, with senior Emirati official Anwar Gargash saying there is a “50-50 chance” of reaching a deal to end the crisis.

Speaking at the Globsec forum in Prague, Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, said Tehran had “over-negotiated” during indirect talks with Washington and warned that Iran risked miscalculating its leverage at a time when the region urgently needs a political settlement, The National reported.

He stressed that negotiations should focus on securing a durable ceasefire and restoring stability, particularly in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the conflict escalated. Gargash warned that allowing Tehran to exercise political control over the waterway would create a dangerous global precedent.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the most critical maritime chokepoints in global trade. Iran’s recent declaration of a “controlled maritime zone” in the Gulf, including claims extending into neighbouring Arab territorial waters, has drawn criticism for violating international maritime law.

Gargash said the UAE feared that politicising the strait would deepen instability across the region and undermine international shipping norms. He accused Iran of repeatedly using threats to maritime traffic and energy supplies as leverage during periods of geopolitical tension.

The remarks came as Marco Rubio acknowledged “slight progress” in ongoing negotiations with Iran but urged countries to reject Tehran’s proposed tolling mechanism for vessels using the Strait of Hormuz.

Gargash also criticised Iran’s long-standing reliance on regional proxy groups, including Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine and the Houthis in Yemen, describing Tehran’s “forward defence” doctrine as destabilising and incompatible with responsible regional leadership.

According to Gargash, the same mindset underpinning Iran’s proxy strategy is reflected in its maritime posture in the Gulf, which he said disregards international law in pursuit of influence.

The UAE official’s comments followed Abu Dhabi’s recent allegation that a drone attack targeting the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant had originated from Iraqi territory, further heightening regional security concerns.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis continued. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsen Naqvi in Tehran on May 22, according to Iranian state media. Pakistan has emerged as an important intermediary between Tehran and Washington amid the ongoing conflict.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said Islamabad was making every effort to facilitate an agreement between the two sides. However, key obstacles remain unresolved, including Iran’s uranium stockpile and the continuing standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.