Sultan Al-Jaber warns Strait of Hormuz crisis has triggered global economic shock

Abu Dhabi, May 24. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has warned that the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has become the “most severe supply disruption on record,” with far-reaching consequences for global energy security, inflation and economic growth.

Speaking in a discussion hosted by the Atlantic Council and moderated by RBC Capital Markets executive Halima Kropp, Al Jaber said the closure of the strategic waterway had already resulted in the loss of more than one billion barrels of oil from global markets, with the shortfall increasing by nearly 100 million barrels every week.

Al Jaber, who serves as UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), said Brent crude prices were trading about 40 percent above pre-crisis levels. He stressed that the disruption was not limited to oil supplies alone but was affecting LNG, aviation fuel, fertilisers, aluminium, plastics, consumer goods and other key commodities that underpin the global economy.

According to him, fuel prices have risen by 30 percent, fertiliser prices by 50 percent and airfares by 25 percent since the crisis began. He added that the global growth forecast for 2026 had been cut to 3.1 percent while inflation had climbed above 4 percent. Al Jaber said nearly 80 countries had already adopted emergency measures to protect their economies from the fallout.

He cautioned that even if the conflict ended immediately, it could take at least four months to restore 80 percent of pre-conflict shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with full recovery unlikely before 2027.

Describing the attacks on the UAE during the conflict, Al Jaber said the country had been targeted by more than 3,000 missiles and drones aimed at civilian infrastructure, including airports, refineries, gas processing facilities and residential areas. He characterised the attacks as acts of terrorism intended to undermine the UAE’s model of economic openness, coexistence and global partnerships.

Despite the attacks, Al Jaber said ADNOC had maintained supplies by rerouting volumes through the UAE’s east coast infrastructure and leveraging its global trading network to support customers, especially in Asia. He added that the company was working with partners to expand strategic storage and strengthen resilience against future disruptions.

Highlighting lessons from the crisis, Al Jaber said resilience and redundancy in energy infrastructure had become essential. He noted that the UAE had invested for more than a decade in export infrastructure bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and revealed that a second pipeline project launched in 2025 was already nearly 50 percent complete, with completion targeted for 2027.

Al Jaber also underscored the role of artificial intelligence in strengthening operational resilience, saying AI should be integrated into energy systems rather than added later. He argued that rapid decision-making enabled by AI would become critical during future crises.

Addressing the UAE’s recent decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+, Al Jaber described the move as a sovereign strategic decision aimed at giving the country greater flexibility to invest, expand production and forge new partnerships. He stressed that the UAE was not turning away from cooperation but moving toward a future in which global energy demand would continue to rise beyond 100 million barrels per day through the 2040s.

He said the UAE intended to increase its oil production capacity while also expanding natural gas and renewable energy investments. ADNOC is currently targeting production capacity of five million barrels per day, while the UAE’s renewable energy portfolio is expected to grow to 100 gigawatts.

On relations with the United States, Al Jaber said ties between the two countries had deepened significantly across energy, technology, investment and infrastructure. He noted that bilateral trade reached $39 billion last year and that UAE investments in the US now exceed $1 trillion, including more than $85 billion invested through ADNOC, XRG and Masdar across 19 US states.

Al Jaber also emphasised the growing link between artificial intelligence and energy demand, warning that the world was underestimating the scale of electricity required for the AI revolution. He said global data centre electricity demand could double by the end of the decade to around 1,000 terawatt hours, with US data centres potentially accounting for nearly 15 percent of American electricity demand by 2030.

Calling the AI race an “electron race”, he said countries capable of delivering reliable and affordable energy would gain a major strategic advantage. He reiterated ADNOC’s support for an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy combining oil, gas, renewables and nuclear energy to meet future global demand.