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FOREIGN AFFAIRSTOP

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death: How, why and what next

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

New Delhi, March 1. On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military offensive against Iran, described in media as Operation Epic Fury, involving hundreds of air and missile strikes on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership targets.

According to Israeli officials and later confirmed by Iranian state media, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989, was killed in the strikes while at his office in Tehran. Iranian media also reported that members of his family, including his daughter, son-in-law, and granddaughter, were killed in the same attack.

Khamenei, aged 86, was the highest authority in Iran’s political, religious, and military hierarchy. He served as the supreme leader of Iran from 1989 until his killing on February 28. Khamenei previously served as the President of Iran from 1981 to 1989. His tenure as supreme leader, spanning 36 years and six months, made him the longest-serving head of state in the Middle East at the time of his death and the longest-serving Iranian leader since Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

The attack on February 28 also reportedly killed other senior Iranian officials, including commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and defence leaders.

Iran initially did not immediately confirm the death of Khamenei, but state television and official sources later acknowledged it, declaring a 40-day national mourning period.

US President Donald Trump publicly affirmed the leader’s death on social media, framing the strike as a blow against terrorism and a chance for the Iranian people to rise against their government.

The offensive was reportedly launched amid long-standing tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, support for armed proxies in the Middle East (such as Hezbollah and Hamas), and repeated confrontations with US and Israeli forces. This military escalation followed years of diplomatic strain after the 2018 US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and subsequent military clashes across the region.

Iran vowed retaliation “with no leniency,” launching missile and drone strikes against Israeli territory and US military bases across West Asia, including Gulf states hosting American forces. Across the region, air defence systems were activated, and civilian areas also sustained damage from both initial strikes and retaliatory attacks.

Independent reports and official Iranian figures indicate heavy civilian casualties, including children. For example, a girls’ school in Minab was hit, with dozens to over a hundred deaths claimed by Iranian authorities.

The conflict rapidly spread beyond Iran’s borders. Iran’s missiles and drones were reported heading toward Israel and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and other Gulf states. Airspace closures and disruptions affected international travel.

Global leaders reacted with grave concern. The UN Security Council convened an emergency session. Western allies issued mixed responses, with some critical of Iran’s retaliatory strikes but cautious about the US-Israel offensive.

Analysts warn the strike marks a major turning point in West Asian geopolitics, with potential outcomes including deepening regional war involving multiple states, a shift in Iran’s internal power balance, as Khamenei’s death leaves no clear designated successor, and oil market volatility and global economic repercussions due to instability around the Strait of Hormuz.

With Khamenei gone, power could shift toward the IRGC or other hardline factions or the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body constitutionally tasked with selecting the next Supreme Leader – though real power may lie with military elites.

The conflict could escalate into broader regional or international clashes involving the Hezbollah and allied militias, proxy conflicts in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and direct confrontations involving US, Israeli, and Iranian forces

Experts warn that removing a central figure like Khamenei may not end Iran’s power structures but could instead trigger chaos, insurgency, or hardline consolidation.

To sum up, the aftermath may include regional escalation, global diplomatic reverberations, and uncertainty about Iran’s future political order.

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