India views China as its primary adversary, Pakistan more an ancillary security problem: US defence intelligence report

By R Anil Kumar

• Chinese-origin combat jets such as the JF-17 and J-10C and the PL-15 missile were extensively used by Pakistan during the recent clashes.

• India perceives China as its “primary adversary” and Pakistan as “an ancillary security problem to be managed” despite the military clashes this month triggered by New Delhi’s military strikes on terrorist facilities, according to a new assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

United States, May 27. According to USDIA’s assessment, tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual Control are “capable of escalating quickly”.

Pakistan, on the other hand, sees India as an “existential threat” and will continue the development of tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s conventional military advantage, while tensions between India and China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are “capable of escalating quickly”, DIA director Lt Gen Jeffrey Kruse said in his worldwide threat assessment to the US House armed services subcommittee on intelligence.

India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7 to target terrorist infrastructure in territories controlled by Pakistan in retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians last month. The strikes triggered four days of intense clashes using drones, missiles and long-range weapons that ended with an understanding between the two countries on halting military actions on May 10.

The DIA assessment, presented on May 11, said the Indian and Pakistani militaries had “agreed to a full ceasefire” after multiple rounds of missile, drone and loitering munition attacks and heavy artillery fire during May 7-10.

Kruse concluded: “India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries.”

On the other hand, the DIA said, Pakistan regards India as “an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage”.

Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and “almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries”, the assessment said. “Pakistan primarily is a recipient of China’s economic and military largesse, and Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China’s PLA”, it said.

Chinese-origin combat jets such as the JF-17 and J-10C and the PL-15 missile were extensively used by Pakistan during the recent clashes.

The DIA said foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan’s weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programmes are “very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates”.

The assessment further said tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are “capable of escalating quickly”, and the Indian government’s defence priorities will “probably focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing New Dehli’s military power”.

“To counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role, India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing,” the assessment said.

Last October, India and China reached an agreement on disengagement of forces two remaining “friction points” on the LAC and the leadership of the two countries agreed to revive several mechanisms to resolve the long-standing border dispute and to normalise relations.

The DIA said the “disengagement did not resolve the longstanding dispute about border demarcation but reduced some tension still lingering from a 2020 incident when troops on both sides were killed in a clash” along the LAC.

The DIA further assessed that India will continue promoting its “Make in India” initiative to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernise its military. India also continued military modernisation efforts in 2024 by conducting a test of the nuclear-capable Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle and by commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to “strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries”.

The DIA also concluded that India will maintain its relationship with Russia because it views these ties as “important for achieving its economic and defence objectives and sees value in the relationship…to offset deepening Russia-China relations”.

While India has reduced its procurement of Russian-origin military equipment, it still relies on Russian spare parts to maintain its large inventory of Russian-origin tanks and combat jets to counter perceived threats from China and Pakistan, the assessment said.