By Simran Sodhi
There is a shift underway in the international system. The ongoing Ukraine conflict, the tensions in the Middle East, the emergence of the Indo-Pacific as a centre for global politics, and the relentless rise of China have all resulted in a move away from a unipolar or bipolar world order to a multipolar one.
This move is also one which suits India very well. As India positions itself globally as the leader of the Global South and a rising power, multipolarity assures India a position as one of the centres of power. This thought was very evident in the address made by External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar a few years back when he pointed out that, “The more European Union and Indo-Pacific deal with each other, the stronger will be their respective appreciation of multi-polarity. A multipolar world is feasible only by a multipolar Asia.”
Of late, there has also been talk of a G2 world, that is of a world order dominated by the United States and China. While it is true that under US President Donald Trump, the US seems more inclined to engage with China than to compete with it, it would be wrong to assume that other world powers like India, Japan, Russia would take a back seat and let a G2 emerge. Again, the tilt seems towards multipolarity and a world where regional powers have their spheres of influence and also co-operate to bring about changes in any of the international institutions that reflect more of a post- World War II reality than the present world.
The Ukraine war and the Iran war have actually hastened this change.
While the US and its western allies have and continue to routinely condemn Russia over its actions, India has stuck to its guns and played it according to her own interests. There continues to be much pressure on India to censure Russian actions and to stop buying Russian oil.
India has consistently abstained at the United Nations at resolutions brought in by the Western world against Russia. This has helped India retain an old friend. About half of India’s military supplies come from Russia. Courtesy the Ukraine conflict, India’s trade with Russia is at a record high.
Despite the never-ending critique, India continues to buy oil from Russia. It is also worth remembering here that Russia used its veto power in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) many a times when resolutions on Kashmir were tabled. The fact that India has done this fine balancing act, of maintaining and strengthening ties with both the US and Russia, makes it a unique power centre in itself.
Another point in study is of course the Quad (a grouping of US, India, Japan and Australia). It would not be an over statement to say that the Quad today is one of the most influential groupings in the world of geo-politics. It is also essentially a forum to check China.
As the politics of the Indo-Pacific take centre stage in the world, India becomes an even more valuable ally not just to the US, but to the entire Western world. While Europe of late has begun to talk of ‘de-risking’ from China, the harsh reality remains that China is a headache with no easy medicines available.
For India, China remains the biggest worry. China’s aggressive behaviour at the border and its expansionist agenda in the South China Sea has almost every world leader worried.
The Ukraine conflict and the Middle East tensions have also seen another related development and that is the tightening of embrace between China and Russia. And that is unlikely to make India comfortable. That somewhere again takes us back to the argument that for India, censuring Russia over the Ukraine conflict would only result in a closer China-Russia nexus.
Both Russia and China are wary of the West and critical of a world they feel is dominated by western ideals and nations. The US-China trade wars and the sanctions against Russia by the Western powers have helped consolidate that feeling and what one sees is the beginning of an anti-West Block.
A multilateral world would be in India’s advantage and would also be welcome by the Global South. One of the end games of course would be a much-needed change in the structure of the UNSC and a permanent seat for India. That would also be more representative of the present world.
The beginnings have been made but it’s still quite a long road ahead.
