IEA chief warns Europe faces flight disruptions as Hormuz crisis squeezes global energy flows

Vienna, April 17. Flight schedules across Europe could soon be disrupted as fuel supplies tighten, with the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) cautioning that the region may have only “around six weeks” of reserves left if oil shipments remain blocked by the ongoing Iran conflict.

In an interview with the Associated Press, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol described the situation as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced”, driven by disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer supplies transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Recalling the band Dire Straits, Birol remarked that the world now finds itself in a literal “dire strait”, warning of mounting consequences for global growth and inflation if the disruption persists.

A dangerous precedent at sea

Birol also expressed concern over reports that Iran has introduced a de facto “toll booth” system, allowing certain vessels to pass through Hormuz for a fee. He warned that normalising such a practice could set a troubling precedent for other strategic waterways, including Asia’s Strait of Malacca.

Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas, along with significant volumes of fertilisers, pass through Hormuz. Iran’s use of low-cost drones, sea mines and coastal strike capabilities has tightened its grip over the narrow passage, where ships must move slowly through confined lanes, leaving little room to manoeuvre and minimal warning time in the event of an attack.

With nearly 1,000 miles of coastline along the Gulf, Iran’s geographic advantage allows it to threaten shipping from multiple points. US military assessments have long noted the range of tactics that could be used to target vessels here, from land-based missiles and naval mines to drones and small attack craft.

Tankers stranded, facilities damaged

Birol noted that more than 110 oil tankers and over 15 LNG carriers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf and could help ease supply pressures if they were able to transit Hormuz safely.

“But it is not enough,” he cautioned.

He added that strikes on energy infrastructure in the region mean it could take months for production to return to pre-war levels, compounding the supply crunch.

Developing world at greatest risk

The IEA chief warned that the heaviest burden of the crisis would fall on developing nations.

“The countries who will suffer the most will not be those whose voices are heard a lot,” he said, pointing to poorer states across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

Without a durable settlement that fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic, Birol warned, the economic pain will be felt worldwide.