By R Anil Kumar
Tehran, Sep 7, 2026. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed at the start of this week, after Iran threatened on September 7, to retaliate for any new US attacks.
The number of commodity vessels sailing through the Strait of Hormuz totalled seven on Monday, compared with eight on the previous day, Kpler data showed on Tuesday.
Iran had warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including US oil and gas interests, was vulnerable.
Goldman Sachs also raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, as it expects shipping disruptions in the Middle East to persist into next year.
Traffic increased through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, however, another major waterway for commodity vessels.
A total of 29 commodity vessels passed through Bab el-Mandeb on Monday, up from 17 on the previous day, Kpler data showed.
Some vessels may be sailing through the two straits with their transponders off, which is not considered in the counts.
Iran says it plans new Gulf ‘exclusion zone’, threatens US with new missiles
Iran threatened the United States with “economic warfare” on Tuesday, September8, and said it had fired an advanced missile at US warships,underscoring the risks of further escalation in the war only days after both sides traded blows again.
The six-month-old war has been marked by a cycle of pauses followed by periodic flare-ups, with the US last reporting attacks on Iranian targets on Saturday, when US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers. Iranian state media on Sunday reported that Iran fired the QassemBasir missile.
Despite US attempts to open up the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has continued to disrupt shipping through the critical artery for global oil and gas supplies, and there is no sign of progress towards a diplomatic breakthrough that could end the war which began with US and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28.
The Islamic Republic has vowed to announce a new restricted zone in the Gulf in the coming days, along with maps of a new shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, though it was unclear when details would emerge.
‘Maritime Exclusion Zone’
The new restricted zone would begin from where the US blockade of Iran begins and extend into areas of the Gulf, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television on Sunday, adding that any vessel entering the area would be placed on an Iranian sanctions list.
On Tuesday, Rezaei reissued dual economic and military threats on X.
“In recent days, Washington has received a clear warning from Iran’s new missiles. Economic warfare will be met by a maritime exclusion zone across the Persian Gulf to the blockade perimeter. The operational posture toward US warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated,” Rezaei said.
Rezaei was likely referring to the QassemBasir ballistic missile that Iranian media reported was fired at US warships near the Strait of Hormuz. The US military said its warships evaded any missile attacks.
Despite major US barrages that have degraded Iran’s conventional forces and punished its already ailing economy, it has maintained missile and drone capabilities to threaten oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz without its persmission and attack Gulf neighbours that are home to US military bases.
Qassem Basir Missile
Iran has touted the QassemBasir as an upgraded missile with improved manoeuvrability that can evade missile defence systems, with a guidance system that is effective against electronic warfare. The Fars news agency reported its first combat use came in June 2025 against Israel.
Some analysts conjecture Iran’s leverage of the Strait of Hormuz may be dwindling while harsh new US economic sanctions are becoming increasingly difficult for Iran to withstand.
About one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments passed through the strait before the war, which enabled Iran to threaten tankers from Gulf neighbours seeking to export oil and gas, pressuring energy prices at a time when the war, which opinion polls show is unpopular in the US, has increased the risks for President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in November congressional elections.
“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon,” Trump said on social media.
Trump has yet to achieve the aims he set out when he launched “Operation Epic Fury” in February: to end Iran’s nuclear programme, halt its ability to attack its neighbours and create conditions for Iranians to topple their leadership.
Punishing Economic Sanctions
Tehran’s clerical rulers remain in power and aim to emerge from the war stronger than before. They continue to demand sanctions relief and hope eventually to collect fees from ships using the strait.
Shipping data showed an average of just 10 commodity vessels per day transited the strait over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May.
Israeli strikes on a town in southern Lebanon killed at least 12 people on Monday, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, marking one of the deadliest days of bombardment in recent weeks.
The attacks have fuelled fears of a renewed Israeli military campaign despite a June ceasefire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. They also complicate efforts to end the wider conflict, with Tehran insisting that any lasting agreement with Washington must include an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
