IAF’s Fighter Conundrum

The decline in IAF’s Fighter squadrons has been discussed, debated and dissected ad nauseam in the last decade without any concrete results. If there is any progress, its tardy. The downfall continues unabated.

The ageing MiG-21 fleet having been the largest component of the IAF’s fighter force and the ageing Jaguar and MiG-29 fleets were planned to be replaced with a mix of indigenous and foreign acquisitions with emphasis on ‘atmanirbharta’ (self-reliance). However, inordinate delays in both have resulted in a situation wherein IAF is staring at fighter drawdown to less than 30 squadrons against an approved strength of 42 squadrons. It is crystal clear that the fighter buildup has to be tackled on a war footing for which a multi-pronged approach is necessary.

On the indigenous front a well thought off plan is taking shape, albeit slowly with the first lot of LCA Mk1 of 40 aircraft having been inducted into the IAF to form two squadrons. This was to be followed by LCA Mk1A version in two orders of 83 and 97 aircraft, respectively, which was stalled because of a two-years disruption in US supplied GE 404 IN engines. There was also a plan for the induction of 114 fighters from foreign sources, associated with MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) programme which has been stagnating for long. Meanwhile, India’s two neighbours, also its sworn adversaries, have been moving fast forward with the acquisition of modern 5th generation J-20/J-35 aircraft, developed by China and being supplied to Pakistan. Not only that, China is well on its way to develop even 6th generation aircraft.

HAL finally seems to have taken cognizance of the effort required. To begin with it is ramping up production of LCA Tejas by setting up a new production line at its Nasik facility, aiming to increase output from 16 to 24 aircraft annually in 2025 and eventually reaching 30 units by 2027.

A 4th assembly line is also planned for Nasik to further expedite production. The process involves private Indian companies, with VEM technologies and Alpha Tocol Engineering Services recently handing over major sub-assemblies like the centre and rear fuselages to HAL. This Public-Private Partnership (PPP) strategy would help in accelerating production and timely deliveries of aircraft.

However, all these efforts are not sufficient and India will have to resort to foreign help to combine with its Indigenous efforts. The first to be considered should be Dassault’s offer to set up a Rafale assembly plant in India, if the numbers are not less than 100.

It may be noted that IAF with its Rafale ground support infrastructure already established in Ambala and Hashimara can immediately absorb at least two more squadrons on these bases.

Later, India made Rafales could also be exported to friendly countries jointly by HAL and Dassault, ensuring a big boost to India’s defence industry and exports. The Indo-French cooperation would be a win-win situation for both.

Rafale is among the contestants in IAF’s current MRFA competition. Notable though, Rafale is only a 4.5 Gen fighter, and India has to move towards acquiring, and producing, a 5th Gen combat jet.

IAF can ill afford to be left too far behind on the 5th generation front. But India’s own 5th generation aircraft programme is still a decade away from fructifying before the AMCA (Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft) becomes available to the IAF.

To plug the gap, IAF needs to acquire at least a few squadrons of 5th Gen aircraft from external resources ASAP. Incidentally, both US F-35 and Russian Su-57 have been on offer, and both were on display at the 2025 Aero-India held in Bangalore in February 2025.

In the final analysis, while India needs to go full throttle on its LCA Mk1, Mk1A, Mk2 and AMCA programmes, focus now has to be on building a 5th Gen force to meet the 42-Squadron strength already sanctioned.

– Air Marshal VK ‘Jimmy’ Bhatia (Retd)