From Shyam Bhatia
London. As Imran Khan’s supporters continue to throng the towns and cities of Pakistan demanding his release from jail and reinstatement as prime minister, the country’s key allies are keeping their distance.
If reports are to be believed, one of those allies may even have played a role in his political downfall.
Last Thursday, Imran’s current wife and self-declared living saint, (or Peerni in Urdu), Bushra Bibi visited her husband in his class C cell in Attock jail, subsequently telling his legal team that all was well. This was reassuring news for those millions of Pakistanis who believe their hero is the victim of a massive conspiracy cooked up by the current political establishment working hand in hand with the army’s top generals.
Outside Pakistan it is the response of the country’s traditional allies that is so intriguing. The most important is the US, a staunch ally for more than 60 years, that has kept Pakistan afloat with repeated generous transfers of cash and weapons. Some of those weapons were indeed used against India, but later also against the Soviet Union when Moscow invaded neighbouring Afghanistan in 1979. Armed resistance to the invasion, funded by the West, contributed to the downfall of the Soviet Union.
When he first came to power in 2018, Imran was ostensibly committed to maintaining the special relationship with Washington. But he seemingly did an abrupt U-turn last year, by visiting Moscow on February 24, the same day that Russia invaded Ukraine. His so-called ‘aggressive neutrality’ about the conflict has angered the US, according to reliable political and diplomatic sources.
A few days ago details of a leaked diplomatic cable dating back to 2022 confirmed US concerns about this February 2022 visit to Russia. The now widely distributed diplomatic cable highlights US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu allegedly telling Pakistan’s ambassador to the US Asad Majeed, ‘I think if a no confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.”
One month after the Lu-Majeed meeting, Imran lost a no- confidence vote in parliament and was removed from office. Pakistan’s foreign ministry has not commented on the leaked cable and in Washington, a spokesman for the State Department said, “Allegations that the United States has interfered in internal decisions about the leadership of Pakistan are false… they have always been false and they remain false.”
At least as important as the US are Pakistan’s ties with Saudi Arabia. Millions of Pakistanis work in Saudi Arabia and the two countries have long maintained a ‘cordial and brotherly’ relationship. Yet Saudi Arabia has refused to exert any back room pressure to secure Imran’s early release or at the very least improve his jail conditions.
Those links with Imran have been under strain since 2020 when Riyadh refused to convene an Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) summit to condemn Indian policies in Kashmir, including New Delhi’s decision to revoke the state’s autonomy by abolishing Article 370 of the Indian constitution.
Imran is said to have been enraged by Saudi Arabia’s studied neutrality on Kashmir, partly explained by India’s rise as a major global power and also by the value of Saudi-Indian bilateral trade, currently estimated at more than US$25 billion. Bilateral trade with Pakistan is valued at a mere US$ 3 billion.
Yet Imran has only himself to blame for how he was treated by the Saudis during his last year in office. Back in 2019, Saudi Arabia’s all powerful Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) loaned Imran his own private jet to attend the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Unbeknown to Imran the aircraft had hidden cameras and microphones that recorded every unflattering comment he made about the Saudi ruling establishment during the 18 hour flight from Islamabad to New York.
Salman never forgave Imran for what was recorded and the same Saudi royal aircraft was understandably not available for Imran’s return trip from New York back home to Pakistan. Instead he was obliged to use a commercial flight.
Imran is additionally alleged to have offended UAE President Mohammed Bin Zayed, although the details of their differences have never been disclosed. Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE is also a source of employment for millions of Pakistanis who remit their earnings back home to Pakistan. Imran is said to have been incensed when Bin Zayed conferred the UAE’s highest civilian award on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Imran’s rage is revealing because it demonstrates how he shares the Pakistani military and political leadership’s continuing obsession with giving India a bloody nose – no matter the cost – despite friendly advice from the Gulf and the West to focus on the more significant issues of improving own living standards by boosting government investment in health, education `and better infrastructure. How else can a party achieve its self-declared aims of giving Pakistanis hope, justice, humanity and self-esteem?
Dawn appropriately observed in its editorial August 14, on Pakistan’s Independence Day: “Salvation lies in retrieving Jinnah’s dream with the rule of law, education, health, welfare, and people power in meritocracy. For non-political forces to usurp or derail the Constitution and cave into religious hardlines violates every ideal close to the Quaid’s heart”
In the foreseeable future Imran will have to rely for personal political survival on the street power that can be mobilised by his political party Tehreeq-e-Insaaf, also known as PTI. Earlier this year a nationwide survey conducted by Gallup confirmed Imran as the country’s most popular leader.
For months on end supporters have been gathering like swarms of political bees beneath the distinctive red and green colours of the PTI flag. In cities like Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Peshawar, they take to the streets, singing PTI songs. One favoured street tactic is to collectively echo the taglines of their jailed leader. Hence the popularity of slogans like, ‘Together for a better world’, ‘Creating hope, Inspiring change’ and the party’s own unique slogan, ‘Justice, humanity and self esteem’.
In an interview broadcast by Pakistan’s GeoNews, outgoing Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif appeared to question Imran’s popularity, arguing that he had relied for survival on support from former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
“Mr Khan also received military support during his tenure. His government was a blend of various components, despite his accusations against others for the same. Every government requires backing from key sectors, including the military”, Sharif commented.
