By Simran Sodhi
New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on May 15, in a short visit, lasting maybe 3-4 hours. But the visit is significant in more than one way and the outcomes of this visit will be eagerly watched. For starters, this is the first visit by Modi to the Gulf region since the start of the Middle East conflict Feb 28. Since then, the world economy has suffered and so has the Indian economy, primarily because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. India is hugely dependent on the Gulf for its energy needs. More than 40% of crude oil and 80% of LNG comes to India from the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz.
India is also witnessing the rise in the price of gas cylinders and reports suggest migrant workers have started returning to villages from the cities, further causing a labour shortage.
The supply of fertilizers has also been affected and for an agricultural economy like India’s, the repercussions are huge. The Prime Minister has already made an austerity appeal to Indians, like not buying gold for a year and avoiding international travel to conserve Dollars and Euros. This also indicates that the government is nervous about meeting its energy demands in the coming days and that is also where the short stop-over visit to the UAE assumes greater significance.
The Indian Rupee has been since the eruption of the Gulf crises and US attack on Iran Feb 28. It has endured its sharpest drop in more than a month to end at its weakest closing level on record on May 11, crossing Rs 95 to a US Dollar.
Oil, Gas, Energy Supplies
The top of the agenda during Modi’s UAE visit and during his meeting with the UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will be energy security.
India’s relationship with the Gulf nations has always been good, and in the last decade have grown in strength, and the India-UAE ties that have particularly emerged as the strongest. According to a statement released by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Modi and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed will exchange views on bilateral issues, in energy cooperation, as well as “regional and international issues of mutual interest”.
High Level Visits
The last two months also saw a series of high-level visit from India to the UAE. External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar visited the UAE in April, and May saw the visits of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval followed by the visit of the Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri. These visits also served to lay the groundwork for Modi’s upcoming visit which is expected to be short but high on outcomes.
Higher oil prices are a major source of worry for the world, but particularly for the Indian Government since that could lead to a widening of the country’s current account deficit, slower growth and higher inflation.
Aragchi in India
Interestingly, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi will be in India May14-15 to attend the BRICS Foreign Ministers meet. It is expected that he will meet Modi before his departure for the UAE.
India has also of late been trying to do more of a balancing act as far as Iran is concerned. Since the conflict began, India’s Foreign Minster has spoken to his Iranian counterpart five times.
Another point on the agenda when Modi travels to the UAE will be the increasing defense and security co-operation between the two countries.
India-UAE Strategic Partnership
In Jan 2026, the UAE President had made a short but significant visit to India. It was for four hours, but one of the important outcomes was the inking of a Letter of Intent (LoI) to establish a comprehensive Strategic Defense Partnership. Now after the Middle East conflict and the shake-up in the security equations of the region, one can expect greater momentum in this direction.
Saudi Arabia had inked a defense agreement with Pakistan before the conflict started. But now one sees the early formation of a quadrilateral security agreement taking place between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey.
For the UAE also, which has been attacked by Iran the most among the Gulf nations, a fresh look at its security parameters and partners is then a must. That is where India is likely to find more room for itself to maneuver. India and the UAE already share a close and trusted partnership and hence the movement to include security co-operation in that agenda becomes an easier task.
