Trump 2.0; risen like a phoenix, mandated to rule on his terms of engagement
By Nilova Roy Chaudhury
The people of the United States delivered their verdict, choosing Donald Trump to lead them. Formally sworn in as the 47th President of the USA on January 20, 2025, the oldest man ever to assume the office of US president, Mr Trump is a man on a mission, in a hurry to leave his imprint, which will resonate not just across the USA but across the world.
There was not even a hint of violence after the presidential poll result; the transition was completely peaceful. There was no attempt to try and stage a coup as Mr Trump himself had done four years ago, when he lost the election to President Jo Biden. However, some of the aggressive intent unleashed during his campaign is now being formalised in the agenda for governance that he is putting into action.
Mr Trump has hit the ground running, signing close to 100 executive orders on his first day, including immediately withdrawing the United States from the Paris Accord, on climate change, and the World Health Organisation, where the reduced funding will impact research and cooperation among countries on future pandemics. Domestically, he has moved swiftly and forcefully to end illegal immigration and participation of transgender people in the armed forces.
Throughout his campaign there was very clear messaging from Mr Trump, that he meant to make America great again, by reviving its economy, whether by removing illegal immigrants who are taking away American jobs, or by slapping prohibitive tariffs on nations which do not abide by his agenda to regain American pre-eminence, including taking back their “illegals”. That, and making strategic acquisitions, are his primary means to make America more secure.
Latin America and immediate neighbours of the United States, Canada and Mexico, appear to be a special focus for Mr Trump. He seeks to assume control of the Panama Canal, in order to control the maritime commerce which traverses the vital waterway, and to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. He threatened Colombia with punitive tariffs unless it took back planeloads of Colombians forcefully turned away from the USA, and retracted his order only when Colombia acquiesced to his terms of engagement.
Mr Trump’s vision also extends to countries, and regions, beyond the oceans lapping American shores. Overlooking the suggestions of US allies in Europe, he has been insistent that the United States should gain control over the Danish territory of Greenland, where it already has a large air base. Given both its strategic position in the Arctic region and the vast natural resources supposed to lie undersea, Mr Trump has claimed American ownership of Greenland as “an absolute necessity” for Western security. He has dismissed Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s offer of closer security collaboration with the USA.
Both China and Russia’s increasing presence and interest in the Arctic region, where vast mineral resources abound, have made Mr Trump’s efforts more immediate, and even threatening for Europe. According to analysts, Mr Trump’s ‘deal’ basically involves Copenhagen accepting Washington’s generosity in relieving Denmark of the burden of administering Greenland.
There is a historical precedent to Mr Trump’s acquisitive vision to make America regain its primacy across the globe. William Seward, the US secretary of state who purchased Alaska in 1867, almost concluded a similar deal then for Greenland, which he said could be a precursor to absorbing Canada. That appears to be why Mr Trump renewed his “offer”to acquire the United States’ northern neighbour as the 51st US state. His moves have got his NATO allies in a huddle.
Mr Trumphas claimed credit for a fragile ceasefire which came into effect in West Asia, a day before his inauguration, after 15 months of a bloody war between Israel and Gaza. While the move has brought some relief and several hostages have been released, the situation in the region remains fluid, with Mr Trump asking for Gaza to be “cleared” and for Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to take more refugees, adding to the uncertainty. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit Washington early in February to outline details of the agreed truce.
A major reason for Kamala Harris losing the presidential poll to Mr Trump was her inability to tackle the very real anger, even in the traditional Democratic Party strongholds, against Israel’s “decimation” of the Palestinian people. Consequently, Gen Z, the first time, educated voters, Arab Americans and Muslims, generally, did not come out to vote for Harris. While governments of both parties traditionally support Israel; Mr Trump particularly so during his first term, when he moved the American embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; Ms Harris did not adequately condemn the enormous violence on women and children in the conflict. She was seen as part of an establishment that was ineffective in reining in the Israeli government or bringing a cease-fire to West Asia.
Elsewhere, Mr Trump has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, a suggestion that has not been well received. It is unclear how he proposes to tackle that crisis, but American companies are ensuring they do not defy any US sanctions already imposed on Russia.
With China, as with other nations, his approach will be transactional. His last minute reversal of the ban on TikTok indicates he wants what he calls “balanced and fair” trade.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to congratulate his “friend” Donald Trump, and looks forward to “renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership,” Mr Modi said in a post on X, the social media platform owned by Elon Musk, an influential member of Mr Trump’s close advisers.
The POTUS (President of the United States) had a “productive” telephone conversation with the Indian Premier on January 27, after which he said Mr Modi will likely visit Washington in February and will do “what is right” on the issue of illegal immigrants, while moving toward a “fair” bilateral trading relationship.
While Mr Modi is perceived to have a warm personal equation with Mr Trump, even campaigning for him during the latter’s failed presidential bid in 2020 (“Ab ki baar, Trump Sarkar”) the POTUS is likely to focus on the economy and, as he did during his first term, ensure transactional parity in tariffs, something Indian trade will need to get used to. India will aim to ensure that bilateral trade, which reached a record level of trade in goods and services worth USD 190 billion in 2023, remains well on track.
India’s bilateral relationship with the USA is among its most wide ranging and closest strategic partnerships, spread across every sphere of activity. So while the world closely watches to gauge the fallout from the Trump 2.0 agenda, India will also be looking to remain in Mr Trump’s good books. If that means taking back 18,000 illegal immigrants, in the first phase, then so be it.
A report in the New York Times, quoting the Pew Research Centre, states that, as of 2022, more than 700,000 undocumented Indians were living in the United States, making them the third-largest illegal immigrant group, after Mexicans and Salvadorans. This could prove to be an area of concern in relations between the two governments.
After the phone call, the White House in a statement said, “The two leaders discussed expanding and deepening cooperation. They also discussed a range of regional issues, including security in the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and Europe.”
“The President emphasised the importance of India increasing its procurement of American-made security equipment and moving toward a fair bilateral trading relationship,” the White House statement said.“The leaders discussed plans for Prime Minister Modi to visit the White House, underscoring the strength of the friendship and strategic ties between our nations,” it added.
Both leaders emphasised their commitment to advance the “US-India strategic partnership and the Indo-Pacific Quad partnership, with India hosting Quad Leaders for the first time later this year,” the statement added.
The US, India, Japan and Australia comprise the Quadrilateral of four democracies which are raising their cooperation in a variety of areas, including defence, counter-terrorism and energy, even as China increasingly flaunts it military and economic clout in the Indo – Pacific region.
Mr Trump’s decision to suspend all US foreign aid while his administration reviews the benefits from that USAID has had an unexpected, and welcome, fallout for India. Washington has halted all aid to Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, leaving Dhaka stunned. Already facing an economic crisis, the move has left Bangladesh banks struggling and businesses in crisis.
The government of Sheikh Hasina was overthrown in August 2024 in a mass uprising purportedly fuelled by Pakistan and fundamentalist forces. The move dealt a blow to India’s neighbourhood security, as the inimical Pakistani deep state appears to have staged a comeback in that country, till recently perceived as India’s close friend during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure.
All US aid to Pakistan is also likely to be stopped, reports indicated, while it is reviewed, adding to that country’s financial crisis.
As a businessman first, Mr Trump is openly transactional in his conduct of foreign policy. For instance, two factors were particularly crucial for foreign leaders dealing with Mr Trump during his first term. The first was his perception of that leader’s domestic political position. Mr Trump preferred leaders with strong support at home, which is why he had a close relationship with Mr Modi. If Mr Trump perceived a leader as “weak,” he would doubt his ability to build the political support necessary to strike deals.
The other vital factor for him was the US’ national relationship with the country in question, with Mr Trump paying more attention to countries he viewed as either aligned with the United States or un-aligned but powerful, such as India.
On both counts, it is unlikely that Trump 2.0 will be different. As a man in a hurry to implement his world view, it will be interesting to see how global leaders, including Mr Modi, adjust to changes outlined in Mr Trump’s emerging ‘America First’ agenda.
