Tunnels and Narrow Streets Hold Israeli Attack; Surgical Strikes The Best Answer

By Lt Col Umang Kohli (Retd)

(An Analysis)

New Delhi. The road ahead for the Israeli army is tough. They have limited options, huge expectations and paucity of time. Obviously, the October 7 operation was well planned by Hamas, with the help of external elements, and it goes without saying that the repercussions of the said operation must have also been thought about by them. As Israel prepares for the ground offensive, there’s a caveat: Fighting in Built Up Area (FIBUA) is one of the toughest kinds of warfare, even tougher than jungle warfare. In jungle warfare, both parties have an equal chance of surprising each other, however, in FIBUA the local resident, hidden in his hole with multiple windows, always has an upper hand.

So, when the Israeli Army prepares to go inside Gaza, it has to keep in mind that the road ahead will not only be tough, it’s going to deplete them in numbers and morale. Normally, in plains, a combat ratio of 1:3 would suffice as far as the defender and attacker are concerned. In mountains, this ratio is 1:6. However, in FIBUA, this ratio between attacker to defender could go up to 1:20 simply because the benefit of the element of surprise is totally with the defender. This kind of combat with a well-entrenched enemy in small fortified houses in narrow streets hasn’t taken place this century, so the sheer scale of ratio is deterrent by itself.

The added challenge for the Israelis to consider is that nearly 250 of their people are held hostage by the Hamas, a ruthless terror organisation that rules Gaza. The Palestinian Authority, which is recognised as the legitimate representative of the Palestinians, has no control over Hamas.

Options

It has generally been seen that maximum casualties take place during search operations from one house to another in a highly dense and hostile area.

The situation is made even more precarious with Hamas hiding the hostages, including women and children and babies, in multiple places. Mass bombings of tunnels or smoking them can’t be carried out due to them.

Mass bombings are also now totally ruled out due to the recent blast in the Al-Ahli Arab hospital at the hospital that killed hundreds of civilians, even though the attack apparently was not from an air strike but a rocket fired, or misfired, by Hamas or Islamic Jehad. An aerial attack would have structurally shaken the hospital building; in this case it was more like a fire that the rockets cause.

Howsoever, the Question is: What is the way forward?

Where does the battle go from here? Is Hamas too well entrenched to be dislodged by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF)? Answers to all these questions would only come with time, but one thing is for sure that in the days to come, military history in warfare against terrorists would be redefined and scripted. Much more than what was called Urban Warfare once.

Armour and Tanks and Mechanised Columns

Mechanised columns have their vulnerabilities.

The Israel Defence Forces, Army component, uses the Merkava tank which has long been considered a phenomenal tank. But it is yet to be seen if it has evolved over time for fighting in Gaza’s narrow streets, many of which it wont be able to enter due to their narrowness.

Another Question is: Has the tank also been suitably modified for hybrid warfare to include anti-drone mechanisms?

If Hamas fired 5000 rockets on Day One as its opening shot, one should expect it to have armed unmanned aircraft Aerial Vehicles, or UAVs, also. Iran, which is reported to be the main supplier of funds and munitions to Hamas, has an excellent capability in drones, and the possibility of Hamas having them is rather strong.

The Ukraine war has shown that drones can be used as effective weapons even by teenagers and ladies, and these suicidal or self-destruct flying bombs can be fatal for mechanised columns also.

Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare includes religious motivation, legal including humanitarian, military, political and diplomatic angles and this war in the Middle East has all the associated tenants of it. The hospital blast shows one of the facets of Asymmetric warfare.

Hamas in fact has mastered the art of creating a narrative.

In FIBUA, all the tenants of asymmetric warfare would be put to good use. Casualties at a hospital is a tragedy that has also changed the narrative, and is a wakeup call. The IDF must step back and then take a leap forward, as taking a giant leap forward without seeing a landing ground would land them in trouble. The ground invasion at this time is sure to expand the canvas of war, which may not auger well for IDF which is already stretched.

In hybrid warfare one stray bomb or one misfire can turn the tide, either way, and Israel has too much at stake to take the risk of an all-out ground invasion.

Innovative Steps

Innovative ways of destroying the tunnels exist, and with some innovation, IDF need a well thought out plan. This plan needs to be coordinated with the available technology and war fighting equipment. A knee jerk reaction to a terror attack may lead to a Waterloo from which it may be impossible to retrieve. The time for ground invasion may come, but only when the enemy has been drained of almost all its resources and when their energy is at a low ebb. Air Strikes are aimed at that.

Patience

Israel must have patience, even in these testing times. If they want to win this war, they need to prolong it and take it step by step.

Right now, the kind of casualties that have taken place in the hospital blast, any ground attack would make Israel vulnerable.

At the present time, notwithstanding the rapidly changing scenario, it would be reasonable for IDF to wait and watch, and improve upon their intelligence network. They should get pinpoint information, conduct surgical strikes and precision bombing rather than plan a ground invasion. Surgical strikes on the top leadership of Hamas would do their narrative a world of good and also help their cause. Taking embedded journalists along in some cases could be useful.

The bottom line is effective intelligence and communication, and  along with surgical strikes, may help them salvage the situation.