By Lt Col Umang Kohli (Retd)
New Delhi, July 16. It is true that India-US relationship seems to have come of age. There was a time when US would invariably have a soft corner for Pakistan in its dealings and would generally hyphenate the two countries together in its dealings of the region. The Bush administration even went ahead and gave Pakistan a Major Non NATO Ally status, a status which continued during the Obama administration as well. So what has suddenly changed as far as US attitude towards India is concerned or has the over all thought process really changed? US obviously failed to make India bow to its demands after the advent of Russia Ukraine War and hence is this now a ‘charm offensive’ by them? US did charm China in the 90’s during the Clinton administration to keep Russia under check, is it now trying to charm India only to keep China under check? Is India now a long term strategic ally of the US or just a counter balance to China? The answers to these questions would shape the geo-politics of the world over the next decade or two, and hence we as Indians must be cautiously optimistic and not outrightly euphoric about the evolving equation with the US.
Support by China for the Russian offensive in Ukraine is no secret. Apparantly, it looks as if China wanted to do to Taiwan what Russia did to Ukraine. This put the US on an alert, as this would make it lose considerable futuristic technology, trade and geo-political clout not only in the Indo- Pacific but also globally. Biden administration thereafter emphasized on India’s centrality in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The U.S. also suggested at India playing a larger role in South, Central, and Southeast Asia, this is obviously to counter the growing Chinese presence in the region. Is India thus a part of larger counter play and an act of decoupling by US or also a natural democratic leader whose time has come? If the present set of events are an indication, it looks like the truth is somewhere in the middle.
If there is a country that can stand up to Chinas expansionist policy it is India for it can match up to it soldier to soldier in an eye ball to eye ball conflict this naturally presents an opportunity for deepening cooperation between India and US.
If we now talk about the takeaways from the visit of the Prime Minister and the deals that came about the major focus was on defence deals and semiconductor business. The transfer of technology by GE to HAL is significant for it provides India the teeth to stand up to Chinese Airforce. The supply of predator drones is for surveillance and keeping an eye on Chinese incursions, and would act as a deterrence to Chinese misadventures along the LAC. The Predators would also keep the PLA’s Rocket Forces under check. US Navy’s pacts with public sector undertakings (PSUs) Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) and Goa Shipyard to avail service and repair of their mid voyage ships is aimed at increasing the reach of US Navy and there by keeping under check the growth of Chinese Navy.
Recently China banned Micron citing that it posed a security risk to China’s critical information infrastructure supply chain, this has obviously not gone down well with the US. Semiconductors are the key to future technology and China has by far till now led the semiconductor technology with the help of tech giants. Both US and China have been using the phrase ‘decoupling’ loosely. For the US it means discouraging imports from China so as to safeguard U.S. jobs and ensure the safety and security of America’s civil and military infrastructure. From the Chinese perspective, however, decoupling is a strategic shift whereby China switches its focus from economic growth to economic control and then leveraging that dominance. Controlling the semiconductor space is like controlling the future for it opens up areas of innovation and growth of future advances in information, communication, AI, Quantum tech, Block Chain, Cloud technology and Data gathering. India has grabbed this opportunity with open arms and facilitated Micron setting up it’s plant in India. China may not be the overriding factor behind this deal however it’s behaviour over the last two years has definitely acted as a catalyst.
Despite China being a non democratic country, it was pampered by the West for capital gains. The west hoped in the 1990s that communist China could be encouraged to be more liberal both politically and culturally by having a open trade policy with it. However, though China did open up economically it closed its political doors to liberal ideas even more. This attitude of the west of helping China become the world’s manufacturing hub obviously helped China grow into a giant that it is.
India is now the largest populated country with the largest youth population in the world. Obviously there can be no future world order that sans Indian’s primary role in it. Decoupling or otherwise, time has come now when India needs to make its presence felt at the world stage both politically and economically.
