Rebeca Grynspan holds lead for next UN chief as race enters decisive stage

By R Anil Kumar

UNITED NATIONS, Oct 18. An informal poll by the United Nations Security Council on Friday, October 16, placed former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as the narrow frontrunner in the race to become the 10th UN secretary-general, two people close to the process said.

But there was no clear winner as all candidates received two or more opposing votes from the ultimately decisive five permanent members of the council — Russia, China, the US, France and Britain — opening the door for new candidates to join the race, diplomats and observers said.

Whoever wins will have to tackle multiple crises, including several wars, cutbacks in American contributions to the UN, and the 193-member body’s declining political relevance as Washington has pulled out of dozens of its agencies.

This was ⁠the sixth secret ballot organized by council officials, who have less than three months to pick the successor to UN chief Antonio Guterres, whose term ends on December 31.

Securing the council’s recommendation requires at least nine positive votes of the 15 countries and no “discourage” votes from the five permanent members.

The race has entered a decisive stage, as Friday’s poll for the first time used color-coded ballots revealing whether a veto power opposes a candidate.

Four of five polls in recent months showed Grynspan, 70, narrowly ahead, with one poll in August placing Guyana’s UN ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett in the top spot.

This dynamic did not fundamentally change on Friday, with Grynspan receiving nine “encourage,” five “discourage” and one “no opinion” vote, with two of the five opposing votes coming from the Security Council’s permanent members, people close to the process said.

Rodrigues-Birkett received eight votes in favor, six against, and one “no opinion,” with two opposing votes from the permanent members. Rafael Grossi, director general of the ⁠UN nuclear watchdog, received a near-identical result to Rodrigues-Birkett, but with one fewer permanent member supporting his bid.

Four more former UN officials and senior diplomats are vying for support, but they have received more opposing than supporting votes, indicating waning enthusiasm for their candidacies.

Diplomats say several senior figures, including former and current foreign ministers and country leaders, are considering entering the race. Any new entrant will face a steep challenge of convincing the divided council in short order.

On the question of new contenders joining ⁠the race, Washington’s envoy to the UN, Mike Waltz, said after the vote: “Countries, if they want to put more candidates in, that’s certainly within their sovereign rights.”

When Guterres was chosen in October 2016, it took six straw polls for the council to reach agreement.

In the more than 80-year history of the UN, there has never been a female ⁠secretary-general.

In an interview on Thursday, Grynspan said she “wouldn’t be surprised” to receive a veto and said that it would be just the start of negotiations as such blocking votes have been overcome by winning contenders in past races.

“The game is not over — we will have to continue working,” she said.

⁠The Costa Rican economist added that the UN has become too risk-averse and its next leader must be prepared to bear the cost of diplomatic failure and try again.

She also said the UN must cut top jobs, curb bureaucracy and stop agencies duplicating work, arguing that cost-cutting alone would not revive an institution struggling with shrinking resources and declining political clout.