By Lt Col Umang Kohli (Retd)
Wagner Group leader Prigozhin and Russia’s military brass were at loggerheads with each other through out the Ukraine War. Two groups, otherwise under direct control of Russian President were seemingly squabbling in the midst of an ongoing war. This that festered throughout the war manifested into an ‘apparent mutiny’ that saw the Wagner Group leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarter in a southern Russian city and roll seemingly unopposed for hundreds of miles toward Moscow, before just turning around.
It is no secret that Prigozhin has been a close aide and an old KGB colleague of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has done a lot of his dirty work in the past. So is it possible that Wagner Group Chief Prigozhin was working on behest of Putin only all throughout the war to keep a check on any internal dissent? Generally the autocratic rulers do have a loyal guard with a mercenary army to safe guard their interests and keep an anticipated internal rebellion by their second in command under check, this is more so when the things are not going exactly as planned on the battle field.
Shoigu the Russian Defence Minister on the other hand has never really been a hard core soldier and yet was tipped to be successor after Putin. Shoigu promised Putin a lot but played and lost. And a general who loses a war loses political perspective and may attempt to start a riot and seize power by force. Putin knows this all too well being an ex KGB himself. Wagner force thus acts as a perfect counter balance for Putin to keep himself firmly placed in position of power.
Events past the so called ‘mutiny’ point towards the direction that Prigozhin is still very much part of the power play, he has not gone into hiding or become insignificant. The dramatic turnaround of the group from outskirts of Moscow to relocate in Belarus clearly showed that Putin was in complete control all throughout and in continuous communication with Wagnar Chief either directly or via Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. The force is being strategically moved to the various infliction points of the war by careful but bold manoeuvres. The move of the Wagnar group to Poland border in the last few days to directly threaten NATO is one such example.
Most of the reports by different sections of the media that Wagner actions have somehow weakened Putin now seem to be misplaced and to some extent even distorted, infact the recent events point that Prigozhin is getting closer to Putin with every passing day.
