By R Anil Kumar
Chinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the country for the first time in seven years, marking a notable improvement in the neighbours’ tense relationship — and one spurred on in no small part by President Donald Trump’s global trade war.
Modi is one of the world leaders who will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) summit starting Sunday, August 31. More than 20 heads of state, including Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, will also attend the regional forum.
But Modi’s decision to attend, in particular, as the leader of the world’s largest democracy and one that until recently had a warm diplomatic and trade relationship with the United States, underscores the way Trump’s approach has alienated some friends as well as united foes.
Xi, who has cast himself as a reliable global leader in a multipolar world order, is set to take advantage during the summit of concerns about Trump’s unpredictability and irascibility.
The Trump administration imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian exports, doubling its planned levy as punishment for buying Russian oil. Beijing technically remains in a trade-war truce with the Trump administration, but tensions are still high.
“Trump has facilitated the environment [where] both sides find themselves more agreeable to accommodate the other,” said Manoj Kewalramani, chairperson of the Indo-Pacific studies program at the Takshashila Institution, a think tank based in Bengaluru.
For Xi, the summit is a chance to cement his growing influence. He wants Modi to show that India is not following the U.S. lead in containing Beijing, particularly in the Global South, analysts say.
Relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours sank to their worst in decades following a deadly border clash in 2020, high in the Himalayas. It marked a turning point in relations: Dozens of Chinese apps, including the wildly popular TikTok, were banned in India, and there were calls to boycott Chinese-made products.
China built up villages at different points along its 2,200-mile border with India to project power and provide infrastructure support to military forces.
Their freeze began to thaw in October — a month before Trump won the election — when Modi met Xi on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in Russia.
Earlier this year, the two countries agreed to resume direct flights, shut since the pandemic, and China reopened a Tibetan pilgrimage site for Indians after a five-year halt.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, visiting New Delhi last week, called for the two countries to see each other “as partners and opportunities, not as rivals or threats.”
Modi was similarly upbeat. “Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity,” he wrote on social media.
The Trump card
Their tentative rapprochement has gained momentum from Trump’s unconventional approach to allies and rivals alike.
India — the one among the world’s fifth-largest economy and one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners — has been hit particularly hard in the trade war and faces one of the highest tariff rates in the world.
But Modi has stood his ground and said earlier this month that he was willing to “pay a heavy price” to protect India’s agriculture, seafood and dairy industries.
China, the biggest purchaser of Russian oil, has jumped to India’s defence opposing the tariffs on New Delhi. “In the face of such acts, silence or compromise only emboldens the bully,” China’s ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, said at an event last week, referring to Washington.
Beijing’s outreach to New Delhi reflects its efforts to ensure stability on its borders, analysts say.
Overall, China is seeking to stabilize relations with neighbouring countries amid a more volatile relationship with the U.S. De-escalating tensions with India has been the most successful effort made by Beijing so far.
The détente might already be beginning to pay some dividends.
China — which controls most of the world’s rare-earth mining and almost all of the processing, and has used its market dominance as leverage in trade talks with the U.S. — appears to have offered a concession to India.
During Wang’s visit to New Delhi, China said it will fulfil the rare-earth material needs of Indian businesses.
Rare earths are essential for key industries, including automobiles, defence, health care and electronics. But Beijing’s recent export controls on heavy and medium rare earths choked supplies of rare-earth magnets critical for India’s auto industry.
After Wang’s visit, India and China outlined steps to coordinate on border issues, a long-standing flash point.
