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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Peace 2025: Trump’s Hour in the Knesset and the New Chessboard of the Middle East

From Shyam Bhatia

FILE PHOTO

London, October 15, 2025. The aftershocks of Peace 2025 continue to ripple through the Middle East less than a week after the guns fell silent over Gaza. In Jerusalem, Donald Trump’s hour-long address to the Israeli Knesset has become the hinge between ceasefire and canonisation: part policy declaration, part campaign for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Speaking to a packed chamber on Monday, Trump cast himself as the architect of a new regional order. “This is the historic dawn of a new Middle East,” he declared to repeated ovations, adding that “this will be remembered as the moment that everything began to change.” He described the Gaza truce as “the end of a painful nightmare” and urged both sides to “put the old feuds and bitter hatreds behind us.”

The speech mixed triumphalism with grievance. Trump mocked “past presidents who had hatred for Israel” and needled a visiting Norwegian envoy about the Nobel Committee’s past “snub.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded instantly: “He deserves it,” he told reporters, confirming that Israel and US House Speaker Mike Johnson would jointly nominate Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize.

For Israel’s coalition government, still balancing relief with political risk, the Nobel nomination is a symbol of restored agency after months of paralysis. For Trump, it is vindication, proof that the deal branded Peace 2025 has global resonance even before its reconstruction phase begins.

Hours after the Knesset address, Trump flew to Sharm el-Sheikh, joining Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to co-chair the Gaza Peace Summit. There, twenty governments signed the Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity, sketching plans for demilitarisation, reconstruction and regional investment under UN supervision.

Critics noted that the declaration stopped short of endorsing a two-state solution and left governance in Gaza undefined. Yet even sceptics conceded that the speed of diplomacy — from truce to summit in under five days — was unprecedented.

For Washington, the summit marked a rare moment of unity with Cairo and Doha. For Egypt, it was a geopolitical reprieve: the chance to reclaim the mediating role once associated with Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak. Sisi’s office hailed the agreement as “a triumph of diplomacy over despair.” Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi called it “a fragile opportunity that must not be wasted.” In Tehran, however, the tone was cutting; an Iranian spokesman dismissed the truce as “temporary theatre designed to legitimise occupation.”

To many observers, Peace 2025 is both culmination and comeback. Five years after leaving office under legal and political cloud, Trump has recast himself as a deal-maker on a biblical scale. Supporters point to his earlier Abraham Accords between Israel and Gulf states as the foundation. The Gaza deal, they argue, simply completes that circle by bringing Arab mediators and Western backers into a single architecture of incentives.

At the heart of this new diplomacy lies a pragmatic calculation: that exhausted combatants will trade ideology for stability if given guarantees of reconstruction and access to aid. Trump’s aides say the idea was shaped during secret talks in Cyprus and Doha, where retired intelligence officers and Gulf businessmen hammered out prisoner-exchange protocols and maritime aid corridors. The resulting ceasefire, signed in Geneva on October 9, is now being branded by US officials as “the Trump Accords II.”

In Washington and Jerusalem, Trump’s supporters are already referring to the ceasefire as “the most important deal ever made.” His allies in Congress, led by Representative Anna Paulina Luna, have formally submitted his nomination to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, citing the release of hostages and the establishment of humanitarian corridors.

The Committee, which last week awarded the 2025 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, has declined comment on future candidacies. But in Oslo, newspapers describe Trump’s bid as “the loudest campaign for peace recognition in modern history.” Israeli diplomats have begun lobbying Nordic countries, arguing that Trump’s initiative saved “tens of thousands of lives” and created “a sustainable mechanism for humanitarian access.”

Even some European commentators, long critical of his foreign policy, now concede that the ceasefire may prove more durable than expected. A column in Le Monde noted that “for all his bluster, Trump achieved what UN envoys could not, a pause that everyone respects because it benefits everyone.”

In Gulf capitals, reactions are measured but cautiously optimistic. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed the truce as “a necessary prelude to rebuilding trust.” The UAE Foreign Minister called it “a moment to translate promises of stability into tangible reconstruction.” Qatar, whose envoys played a key mediation role, is expected to chair the Gaza Reconstruction Council headquartered temporarily in Doha.

Palestinian officials remain divided. The Palestinian Authority has endorsed the truce but warned that it cannot replace a political settlement. In Gaza, a Hamas spokesman said the organisation had “survived the storm and lives to negotiate another day.” Western diplomats interpret that as quiet acceptance of a de facto freeze, neither victory nor surrender, but survival through ceasefire.

Iran has adopted a wait-and-watch posture. Its state media alternates between denouncing the deal and hinting at openings for indirect contact with Washington. A former Iranian negotiator told Al-Jazeera that Tehran “understands fatigue when it sees it and may use this calm to regroup its allies.”

In New Delhi, the Ministry of External Affairs has publicly welcomed the ceasefire and “all efforts that lead to sustainable peace,” while maintaining its stance of “active neutrality.” Officials privately say that India’s quiet coordination with Egypt and Jordan during the evacuation of aid workers has earned discreet praise from the UN. Naval patrols in the Red Sea and eastern Mediterranean remain on alert, reflecting both humanitarian and security concerns.

Defence analysts point out that Israel’s shift from battlefield to diplomacy will indirectly affect India’s arms-procurement calendar. Israeli firms supplying radar, drones and surveillance technology to India are now likely to prioritise reconstruction contracts, including perimeter security and cyber-defence for Gaza’s rebuilt infrastructure.

Analysts in New Delhi say India’s strength lies in its ability to talk to all sides without being drawn into rival blocs, a stance that now gives it diplomatic space to offer training, engineering and health support as part of Gaza’s reconstruction. This quiet, technical engagement, officials believe, will reinforce India’s image as a pragmatic problem-solver rather than a partisan power.

Behind the pageantry lies a familiar paradox: the performance of peace versus its practice. Trump’s “historic dawn” rhetoric drew on biblical cadence and political theatre, but the work of reconstruction — the engineering of Gaza’s future — has only just begun. Diplomats caution that if aid falters or the ceasefire collapses, Peace 2025 could shrink to a line on a résumé rather than a chapter in history.

Still, there is a shared recognition, even among critics, that something has shifted. The old vocabulary of “process” and “roadmap” has given way to deals struck in real time, televised and transactional, where relief convoys and stock markets move in parallel. Trump’s genius, or opportunism, lies in turning exhaustion into momentum, giving both Israelis and Arabs a sense that the war’s endgame can be monetised before it unravels.

For now, Jerusalem is basking in rare unanimity: a war halted, hostages home, and a president once dismissed as disruptive recast — at least for this week — as peacemaker. Whether that legacy endures will depend on what follows his hour in the Knesset, the world’s newest audition for a Nobel laureate.

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