Middle East conflict re-sets equations: Flurry of activity in Beijing as US depletes power
By Simran Sodhi
New Delhi. After a 40-day period of conflict between the United States-Israel and Iran, the world is in the middle of a fragile ceasefire. The deadlines keep getting an extension but a peace deal is yet to be inked. The world economy has suffered and it will be a while before the world gets back to ‘normal’.
As US President Donald Trump keeps changing his goal-posts frequently with respect to the conflict, the critique of the US has grown sharply. Many world leaders feel this was an avoidable war and blame the US for their economic woes today. But just as many express their frustration with the US, the pivot towards China seems to be growing. Even before this conflict started, China and Russia (two of the world’s biggest power centers today) were seen as more aligned to one another’s interests. It can be argued that this ‘war of choice’ has actually brought them even closer.
April 14 marked a hectic day of diplomacy for China. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan all met with the Chinese leadership in Beijing. Many analysts see this as an indication of a subtle shift where many countries are now looking to partner with China which appears a more stable and reliable partner. For China, this is a win-win moment. One: the US with whom China has a competitive relationship is getting its power depleted. Two: China is quietly posturing itself as the reliable and stable global power that respects international law.
China and Russia have both also condemned the US and Israel over their attacks on Iran. Both countries also share close ties with Iran. Iran supplied Russia with the low-cost Shahed drones to use in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These drones have proved highly effective for Russia. China meanwhile is a big importer of Iranian oil and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz effects its economy directly.
The visit of Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, to China and his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping was another significant development. Xi in his remarks emphasised the importance of national sovereignty, the international rule of law and the central role played by the United Nations. China is also today the UAE’s biggest trading partner and one of the main customers for its oil. Trade between the two countries is projected to approach US$1 trillion in 2026, according to official figures.
The visit of the Spanish PM Sanchez to China made news for many reasons. This was Sanchez’s fourth visit to China in four years, highlighting the growing synergy between the two. Sanchez has also been critical of the US role in the Middle East and during this visit, he called upon China to play a more active role in the region. The Spanish government has opposed military action in the Middle East, which has led to tensions with the US. Spain also refusedto allow the use of its military bases for US strikes against Iran, which further angered President Trump. The Spanish leader has called for greater co-operation between China and the European Union.
It would then be a fair assessment to make that many nations are re-thinking their ties with the US and China. Under President Trump, the US has emerged as more of a disruptor of the international order. China, on the contrary, despite the questions over its trade and human rights issues, has come across as a more responsible global actor. As of now these are subtle movements. Next month, Beijing is likely to play host to US President too. But in what appears to be a fragile world order today, the Chinese are projecting an image of strength and allies seem to be increasing.
Militarily, the US has the world’s best armies, navies and air forces. Yet, even after a month of bombing Iran relentlessly, the US is not in a position to declare victory. The asymmetric warfare employed by Iran has brought down US planes, hit US military bases in the Gulf States and infrastructure facilities in the region. Most significantly, Iran has de facto closed the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil passes through. This has resulted in the oil prices crossing $100 a barrel and fears of inflation and recession spreading globally.
The US has fumed and issued threats and tantrums to the Iranians. But to no avail. The fact that the US, with all its military might, has failed to get the Strait of Hormuz opened also signals the beginning of the end of the US hegemony.
Further, the fact that the US’s NATO allies have refused to back the US on this war or become a party to it, further points to the alienation of the US from Europe. It would not be an overstatement to state at this point that the ongoing Middle East conflict has permanently damaged the EU-US alliance.
The world order that we knew before this conflict started on Feb 28 has changed forever. Once the hostilities cease, the world will not go back to the old normal. There will be a new ‘normal”. Whether that sees the rise of multipolarity with players like China, Russia, India and the US as global actors, or a new hegemonic power play between the US and China is still a matter of debate. The manner in which the ‘peace deal’ is inked will give us an indication in the coming days.
